Rd1 (#27)WR DeAndre Hopkins
Rd2 (#57)S DJ Swearingen
Rd3 (#89)OT Brennan Williams (#95) DE Sam Montgomery
Rd4 (#124)OLB Trevardo Williams
Rd6 (#176)OT David Quessenberry (#195) WR Alan Bonner
Rd6 (#198)DT Chris Jones (#201) TE Ryan Griffin

Texans grind out win over Bills, move to 7-1 at halfway mark

Posted by: Chris on November 4th at 7:52PM

It sure wasn’t pretty, but the Texans are 7-1. 7-1!! I try pretty hard not to just come off like a cheerleader, but in no way did I ever imagine this team being 7-1 after some significant offseason personnel changes. I’m just kind of flabbergasted…. and of course giddy like a kid.

I’m not able to do a full wrap-up tonight. I will hit that early this week, hopefully tomorrow. Next week is arguably the Texans toughest game of the season – especially with the way the Chicago Bears are playing defense. They are just on another level right now, and SCORING on that side of the ball as well.

So we will reconvene early this week and talk Bills vs Texans. Sorry for the short post tonight.


On Houston’s long, difficult road to home field advantage

Posted by: Chris on October 31st at 1:11PM

I sure have heard a lot of NFL types (locally and nationally) who have the Texans penciled in as a near lock for home field advantage in the AFC this year. Whoa now, lots of football left to be played. It’s not so much that I don’t think the Texans can hold up their end – but there are other factors here.

Right now, the presumed legitimate contenders for the top seed in the AFC are Houston, New England, and Denver. I agree with that.

Houston (6-1) still hosts Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Minnesota. They have to travel to Chicago, Detroit, Tennessee, New England, and Indianapolis. I’ll never assume a team is going to win every game they are supposed to win, and lose all the games they are supposed to lose. The Colts are hanging tough and presumably Andrew Luck will get better. New England and Chicago are clearly tough games. Detroit typically plays well at home on Thanksgiving. The Vikings are clearly not an easy out for anyone.

New England (5-3) hosts hosts Buffalo, Indianapolis, Houston, San Francisco, and Miami. They travel to the Jets, Dolphins, and Jaguars. The Patriots’ defense isn’t blowing anyone away, but their offense is stellar, and if you want to go ahead and write off Tom Brady and Bill Belichick – be my guest. They could absolutely find their stride and hit a big win streak. Will they? Probably not, but it’s SO not out of the question.

Denver (4-3) is the latest media darling as Peyton Manning is rounding into the Peyton of old. My feeling on Denver all along has been that Peyton would get stronger as the season went on. That combined with a strong defense and a couple of pass-rushers who still haven’t played their best football of 2012 makes for a scary team. But here’s the REALLY fun part. Look at this JOKE of a remaining schedule for the Broncos, this time in order: They are at the Bengals, at the Panthers, host the Chargers, at Chiefs, host Buccaneers, at Raiders, at Ravens, host Browns, host Chiefs.

I mean, that is RIDICULOUS. Plus, they finish with two EASY games at home.

Of course, the Texans have an extra game up on Denver via their head-to-head victory, and they have a chance to do the same when they visit New England on Monday night December 10. Clearly if the Texans win out, it’s all good – but that’s not going to happen, let’s not get crazy. The same logic applies to the other teams, and no way does New England run the table – but is it totally insane that Denver could? I don’t think so.

Worst case scenario, Denver wins out and finishes 13-3. That would mean Houston would have to lose at least three of their final nine games to finish 12-4 to lose the home field. It’s not at ALL difficult to pull three losses out of those remaining games. Of course, it’s a longshot that Denver wins out, so you do the math.

In conclusion – clearly I started this article with the intention of explaining that we should all hold our collective horses when it comes to talking about Houston locking up home field advantage. I was going to be your friendly neighborhood calming voice of reason.

But hey, I can’t. Denver’s going to run away with the AFC West, but they’re not going to win out… and this Texans team is not going to fall apart in the second half, assuming they stay healthy in key positions.

The path to home field is frighteningly wide open. Considering Denver’s schedule, I thought a closer look would make a Super Bowl path-through-Houston look a bit less likely… but um… it really doesn’t.

Wow. I love this season. Let’s cash it in.


Mario Williams, Bills headed for Houston for “Judgement Day” (chortle)

Posted by: Chris on October 29th at 1:15PM

The Texans are back from their well-earned break. At 6-1, they are set to host the 3-4 Buffalo Bills, who bring a defense to town that could send us all into 2010 Frank Bush flashbacks. I mean, they are beyond brutal. The additions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to go with Kyle Williams and Marcel Dareus on the defensive line was supposed to make the Bills a fearsome defensive front… instead – GOD AWFUL. It’s obviously not all Mario’s fault, but reality is that they paid him to be THE MAN, not one of the guys who is a piece to the puzzle. Mario isn’t that guy, never was that guy, and certainly wasn’t going to become that guy. That said – there’s NO WAY I thought he’d underachieve THIS much.

We know now that Mario started complaining about a wrist injury that was preventing him from playing at his best. NFL fines followed, and ultimately Mario (apparently on his own) decided to have a “minor procedure” on his wrist that will have him missing practice time, but allegedly will not cost him an appearance against his former team. We’ll see.

The day the NFL schedule came out back in April, Mario Williams tweeted something to the effect of “November 4th Judgement Day.” That rubbed a lot of fans the wrong way.

You will recall during Houston’s dismantling of Baltimore, fans booed Jacoby Jones lustily. I thought that was lame, though obviously within the rights of those who did the booing. Jacoby needed to go. It was time. But for fans to threaten him after the playoff loss last year was ridiculous. If he had gone to the media and ripped Houston, the fans, the coaching, etc., then sure – boo away. But he’s just a guy who screwed up. So what?

Mario is kinda sorta different. I’m a big Mario fan, but in no way did I ever for one tenth of one second think he was going to re-sign in Houston – nor did I want him to, considering the amount of money it would have taken.

Like many other Texans fans, I had some interaction on Twitter with him after the deal to send him to Buffalo became official. I wished him well, and he responded to a couple of my tweets in a really friendly, appreciative manner. It was all good. But, then he started taking subtle potshots at the Texans, and then they became not-so-subtle. Part of the reason for that, of course, is that I’m sure the vast majority of Texans fans were hurling insults at him, rather than wishing him well.

Again, whatever. Everyone has every right to say whatever, whether it be completely stupid and unfounded or not. It’s a free country, blah blah blah. But for Mario to say there were no hard feelings, and that he wished everyone the best in Houston – and then to turn around and call for “Judgement Day” and other barbs on Twitter – it’s clear that he’s got issues with how things went down in Houston. It’s clear he has a chip on his shoulder about it, and that’s fine – but when you say things like that in the public setting that is Twitter, you have to be ready to accept that people are going to react negatively.

It’s obvious by Mario’s tweets (and even a couple of interviews from back after the signing) that he’s put a star next to this one, and it’s not “just another game” for him. What does that mean? Well, considering Mario’s play in the past – it probably means he will have his best game of the season against the Texans. That’s just kind of how Mario has rolled. When he’s extra motivated, he seems to rise to the occasion. Not always, but it has happened in the past (nationally televised games, games after he has taken an unusual amount of criticism, etc.)

The Bills are awful, but they have managed to play well in spurts enough to get three wins. If the Texans don’t take the Bills too lightly, they should steamroll them regardless of how well Mario plays. How much will he play, or how effective he will be remains to be seen. He may not even practice this week – but you can bet he’ll find a way to get on the field. When he does, he’s going to hear it from Reliant… and unlike last week with Jacoby, I won’t say a word in his defense.


Battle Red Radio: Blowout basking, 2nd half talk, praising Kareem

Posted by: Chris on October 25th at 5:31PM

For reasons I’m not entirely clear on, the server that hosts this website has been blocking my access to it since Monday, thus – the chilling silence. But all is better (for now).

You have an extra week before the next Texans game, so you can afford an extra hour (plus) to continue to celebrate the grisly destruction of the Baltimore Ravens. We cover topics from, beer, to when its appropriate to drink beer (Brett doesn’t know his audience yet). We discuss the Colts, Titans, and uh… milk? We (all) praise Kareem Jackson, look ahead to the second half of the season, and Rivers puts a gun to my head.

Give a listen to the podcast here.


Texans obliterate old friends, Flacco, and rest of Ravens 43-13

Posted by: Chris on October 21st at 8:57PM

They say the true test of a great player is how that player handles adversity. Well, that’s silly. But let’s say it’s not and if we apply that same logic to an entire team, we got a good idea of what the Texans are made of today. A week after getting embarrassed at home at the hands of the desperate Packers, the Texans figured to have another difficult challenge in front of them today at Reliant, when the 5-1 Ravens came calling in a matchup of the AFC’s top two teams.

So the stage was set for a truly great, down to the wire game… but instead, the Texans set the stage and the the theater on fire, and that was that. Old friends Bernard Pollard, Vonta Leach, and Jacoby Jones came seeking redemption and vengeance. Well, as much as I like all three of those guys, all they got was a brick to the skull. So guys, I was glad to see you back and see that you got out healthy, but if you please you can now slink back to Baltimore and maybe we’ll see you again in January.

After (another) bumpy start, the Texans once again kind of plodded along until their defense made a play that sparked an explosion. First, Connor Barwin notched his first sack of the season, good for a safety as he was unblocked on his way to taking down Joe Flacco. The Texans followed with a 25-yard TD pass from Matt Schaub to Kevin Walter, putting Houston up 9-3. The Ravens then got the ball back, but JJ Watt wasn’t about to let the Ravens stifle the momentum. Watt AGAIN tipped a pass that was AGAIN intercepted, this time by Johnathan Joseph who made a difficult catch on the way to a 52-yard TD return. That put the Texans up 16-3, and they never looked back.

I was convinced Ray Rice was going to have a huge game for the Ravens. This was the game where Houston would feel the sting of losing Brian Cushing… though I thought the Texans would hang on for a close victory. Well so much for all of that. The Texans jumped all over Baltimore, forcing them to abandon the running game and put their chances squarely on Flacco’s arm.

HAHAHAHA!

So you know how that went. As much as I’d love to heap all the praise in the world on the defense, good LORD Flacco was positively Gabbertesque today. If one was kind of a jerk, he might even refer to Flacco as “Flabbert.” Yes, Flabbert. Most of the credit for that goes to Wade Phillips, who called a FANTASTIC defensive game, but some goes to Flacco himself, who looked absolutely stupified out there.

There’s just not a lot to complain about here if you’re a Texans fan. It’s the same old thing, special teams. They weren’t abhorrent today, but Jacoby Jones did bust a couple of good returns. That will happen though, because he is a plus return man. Some people are saying that Jones is improved, or has found his “way” in Baltimore – that is such a huge load of garbage. He is the SAME PLAYER in Baltimore as he was in Houston. He needed a change, the team needed a change – it’s done. The fans didn’t “run him out of town.” It’s just something that happened and it’s done, so stop it already to people who keep saying that.

Anyway, how about that defense? Specifically, that third down defense?

The Texans held the Ravens to 4/15 on third down conversion attempts. They forced six three-and-outs and two turnovers. They held Flacco to 21 completions out of 43 attempts, and held the Ravens’ offense to 176 total yards. Rice never had a chance to get going, but finished with 42 yards on only nine carries. He did pull down five catches, but SHOCKINGLY, the Texans only allowed him 12 yards on those catches. THAT is incredible to me.

Oh, and how about rookie Whitney Mercilus?? FINALLY some important snaps for him, and boy did he ever make them count. Mercilus had a sack and forced fumble (recovered by Baltimore) and got his hand on Flacco’s arm on a pass that he somehow managed to complete. Absolutely GREAT to see Mercilus getting involved. I hope we continue to see a steady stream of increased reps for him that aren’t in garbage time.

Offensively, Matt Schaub had a big miss at a wide open Kevin Walter early in the game, but was on point for most of the rest. He found Andre Johnson nine times for 86 yards, and the Texans once again did not turn the ball over. Schaub impressively evaded the rush a couple of times, and once made a nice drive-extending pass after slipping a sack. That pretty much never happens for Schaub.

On top of all that domination by the defense, and 420 yards of domination by the offense – Gary Kubiak came out firing in the second half and really stamped out any chance or thought of a comeback. I give him credit for his aggressiveness in a game where he really didn’t NEED to be aggressive in the second half. Flacco’s poor play coupled with Houston’s excellent defense made for what I thought was going to be another conservative conclusion to this game (WHICH I AM FINE WITH, BY THE WAY), but I like to think Kubiak said “F it, let’s send these fools home bleeding.” Well played, Kubiak. Well played.

Player of the game – offense – Schaub, for his poise, accuracy, and ability to take care of the ball. He did not get rattled after an early sack, and didn’t try to do too much. Just a great under-the-radar performance by #8.

Player of the game – defense – This is tough. Watt didn’t get his sacks, but he was still affecting most every play, and of course he had that aforementioned swat that served up a pick six for Johnathan Joseph. Glover Quin had an incredible pick. Antonio Smith celebrated his birthday with two sacks of his own. I guess I’ll go with Connor Barwin, who had his long-awaited first sack of the season, and early safety on Flacco. That seemed to be the spark. He also had a nice defended pass (that Flacco NEVER should have thrown) and was getting close to the QB all day. Here’s to hoping this is the start of a return to form for Connor.

Play of the game – have to go with Joseph’s interception off the Watt tipped pass. It continued the momentum created by Barwin’s sack/safety, and the Texans just put the hammer down from that point forward.

What a game. The Texans came out and gave us quite literally the BEST CASE SCENARIO in response to what happened last week.

Goodbye, Ravens. Thanks for coming. Come back in January, won’t you?


News & Notes: Joseph a game-time decision, Hunter to have surgery

Posted by: Chris on October 19th at 1:18PM

News came down today that defensive lineman David Hunter, just added to the roster from the practice squad this week due to the Tim Jamison injury, suffered a toe injury in practice today. Hunter will require surgery, and doctors have apparently said it will be a three-month recovery process, which would effectively end his season. That will once again leave the Texans a bit thin on the defensive line. Once Hunter is formally placed on IR, they figure to add yet another defensive lineman. Tim Bulman is out there, but the Texans might want to go a younger, cheaper route.

Johnathan Joseph’s groin continues to be an issue, as has been heavily discussed this week. Joseph was limited in Friday practice after sitting out Wednesday through Thursday, and will be a game-time decision. As I’ve said before, I don’t know what the percentage is – but I’m pretty sure the number of guys Gary Kubiak has deemed a game-time decision who then went on to play that week is pretty low.

I have conflicting thoughts on this. Joseph is so key to what the Texans are able to do on defense, and we’ve now seen what we get when Joseph isn’t himself. Will two full weeks of rest get his groin in shape for him to play at the level we expect for the rest of the year? We don’t know, because we don’t know the severity of the injury – but if it’s fairly serious, I suspect the answer is no. That said, he’s obviously been able to play (poorly) through it, so it can’t be THAT bad.

If this was against an NFC opponent, or the game was more inconsequential, I would probably jump right up and scream that the Texans should sit J-Jo down and let him take advantage of the time off plus the following bye week. But this game against the Ravens could loom absolutely HUGE when it comes down to the end of the season, tiebreakers, home-field advantage, etc. It’s quite a quandary for Kubiak, especially when there’s always a chance Joseph could make the injury worse by playing just one more game.

Gun to my head right now? Hate to say it, but I sit him.


Battle Red Radio: Packer postmortem, Ravens preview, missing J-Jo

Posted by: Chris on October 17th at 6:33PM

Seriously guys, keep Johnathan Joseph’s groin squarely in your thoughts. Think about it constantly. Talk about it with your family. Name your next child “J-Jo’s groin.”

If you missed last night’s Battle Red Radio, go ahead and check out the podcast right here. It features myself and longtime friends of the site Rivers McCown and Matt Campbell, so you know – there is objectionable language. There may also be mention of a bag full of spiders and a suggested use for said bag full of spiders (hint – SPESHUL TEEMZ).


What will the loss of Tim Jamison mean to the defensive line rotation?

Posted by: Chris on October 16th at 1:15PM

The Texans suffered a season-ending injury to a defensive player for the second week in a row. Backup defensive end Tim Jamison’s Achilles injury has landed him on Injured Reserve, which will put the D-line rotation into flux.

Sure, Jamison is not a starter, but you’ve been watching the Wade Phillips defense long enough now that you know he runs a lot of rotations on the defensive line.

The Texans have promoted practice squad defensive lineman David Hunter to the active roster. Gary Kubiak said on his weekly radio appearance that Hunter has won the defensive “scout team player of the week” award three out of the first five weeks. Really? There’s an award for that? Apparently.

So Hunter will hit the 53-man roster, and the Texans will move forward. Kubiak also sung the praises of Earl Mitchell on his radio program, noting that one of the things they love about him is his ability to play the outside and inside. Mitchell is getting equal reps with “starter” Shaun Cody these days, but it sounds like he may slide outside more often in Jamison’s absence.

Rookie DE Jared Crick also figures to see the field more, but he had only seen 33 snaps on defense (through the first five weeks). If Mitchell is truly going to slide outside more with Jamison gone, Crick’s snaps may not increase as much as I initially thought they would.

With the loss of Brian Cushing and a key rotational player like Jamison, Phillips certainly has no shortage of challenges this week. At least one Texans defender (I don’t recall which) has already admitted the Texans missed Cushing’s emotion on Sunday night. That kind of scares me. Cushing’s emotional “lift” should be a bonus to the team, not something they count on him for.

Houston’s awful performance on Sunday night dropped their defensive rank from constantly in the top three, to number six overall. A hot Aaron Rodgers will do that to you. The Texans will be challenged against the Ravens next, who suddenly are generating some good offensive numbers, but are upside-down on defense. If the Texans were crushed by the loss of Brian Cushing, imagine if the team had lost both Cushing AND Johnathan Joseph in the same game? That’s essentially what happened to Baltimore when they lost LB Ray Lewis to a torn tricep, and their best CB Ladarius Webb to what I believe is a torn ACL, for the rest of the 2012 season.

You have to believe there will be more injuries as the season goes, as is typical in the NFL. The only way the Texans are going to continue to win through a tough stretch in the schedule, is if players like Brooks Reed, Connor Barwin, Bradie James, Tim Dobbins, and others on the defense step their game up to make up for a couple of important losses.

Side note – last year’s starting inside linebackers – DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing. Now? Bradie James and Tim Dobbins.

*heavy sigh*


Texans viciously murdered on live television – do we have to talk about this?

Posted by: Chris on October 15th at 9:18PM

Oops. Well then.

So, as I figured they would, the Texans lost Sunday night. However, in no way did I envision THAT.

You know how a lot of times, coaches, players and fans will be quick to point out the positives of a loss as something to build on going forward? The only positive I can think of from that game is that it (eventually) ended.

The Texans got their heads kicked in from goalpost to goalpost, in all phases of the game.

There really isn’t much to analyze. On offense, the offensive line got whipped in pass protection, and got beaten even worse when they tried to run the ball. If I had to come up with a descriptor for the offensive line in this game, I would say they were “the poops.”

The Packer secondary had Matt Schaub confused and bewildered, and of course he never had more than a few seconds to throw the ball. It wasn’t just Clay Matthews, either. Pressure was coming from everywhere. Even Duane Brown had his worst game since I can’t remember when. Surprisingly, Matthews was matched up with Brown for a significant chunk of the game. Matthews had Brown off balance all night, and to his credit – Matthews was simply more elite at his position than Brown was at his. That’s going to happen when you go up against one of the best (the best?) at his position in the NFL. No shame in that for Brown. He and pretty much every one of the other 44 active guys wearing blue had a very bad night.

Andre Johnson finally had a little more impact in this game, but even though he had eight catches on twelve targets, none of his catches stretched the field, and none of them were big plays. Of course, that has a lot to do with the fact that the Packers built a lead, set the safeties back, and made sure they didn’t give up anything big.

Arian Foster and Ben Tate quite literally did nothing. Arian’s longest rush was five yards. FIVE! Just awful – but this was all about the complete lack of ANY successful blocking.

On defense… yeesh. Not to channel John McClain, but everyone gets an F. Well, maybe not JJ Watt, but you get my meaning. Facing a good quarterback and skilled receivers, Kareem Jackson was Kareem Jackson. Disturbingly, Johnathan Joseph had his second bad game in a row and we’re left to question how much his sore groin is hurting his game. Glover Quin got beaten twice on touchdowns. Danieal Manning lost his mind and punched a guy in the helmet three times, giving the Packers an automatic first down after a third down stop that led to a touchdown. Of course, he was getting snapped in half under a pile, but you still can’t let that happen. It’s not like those short-arm punches actually made any difference.

The inside linebacker play. Oh, the inside linebacker play. Nothing too unexpected there but if you think it was bad against the Packers, I suspect it COULD be worse against the Ravens. I just don’t buy that Cushing’s pass coverage is going to be missed that much – it’s his play against the run that I think the Texans will miss. The team needs some Wade Phillips magic in practice this week for sure.

Up front, the nose tackle play continued to be, shall we say, sub par? Earl Mitchell and Shaun Cody continue to split snaps, with Cody drawing most of the garbage time reps. Neither are doing anything inspiring. We will see even more of Mitchell now that Tim Jamison is done for the season with an Achilles injury. Gary Kubiak has praised Mitchell for his play and his ability to slide to the outside. Yeeeahh, we’ll see.

Connor Barwin is still an invisible man in this defense. I’ve heard some of the theories explaining his regression, but I’m just not buying right now. He looks slower, and the most telling problem is that until the Packers’ game he hasn’t even been close to getting the QB. Finally, he got his hands on the QB two or three times but came away with nothing. It’s true that sacks often come in bunches, but this is not a numbers issue. It’s an effectiveness issue. There’s still a lot of season left to be played, but Barwin is getting handled in single coverage without much of a problem.

Then there’s the coaching.

As much as the Texans were outplayed Sunday night, they were just as much outcoached. I mean, former Texans’ head coach Dom Capers simply OWNED current coach Gary Kubiak. The Packers simply obliterated the Texans’ zone blocking scheme, and made it look pretty easy. It’s not the first time their tactics have been used, so it will be interesting to see how many other teams in this so-called “copycat league” try to emulate it.

The Packers came in with a great gameplan on defense, executed it to perfection, and probably sat there astonished in the second half as the Texans failed to make any significant or effective adjustments.

ALL that said – it’s just one game. Not only is it just one game, but it was a game against an NFC opponent. Saying this game was meaningless is certainly not the case. However the AFC has been SO average this year, that depending on the outcome of the Monday Night game between San Diego and Denver, there will only be either two or three teams in the conference with a winning record. On top of that, we are all very aware of what a weak division the Texans play in.

So you get where I’m going. It’s done. It was embarrassing, awful, and frankly kind of shocking how badly the Texans were beaten… but big picture? It doesn’t hurt the Texans much at all on paper. We just need to now see how the team responds to such a beating. We are going to find out pretty quickly with Baltimore coming to town, who can also put up some numbers offensively – but have been dealt a MAJOR blow by losing LB Ray Lewis and CB Ladarius Webb for the season.

The Texans should win Sunday. If they can’t put up some offense against the Ravens suddenly porous defense, that’s a problem.

Player of the game – offense – nobody.

Player of the game – defense – JJ Watt yet again. No explanation needed after another multi-sack performance… but it’s not like it had any real impact on the game.

Play of the game – pick any of Aaron Rodgers SIX touchdown passes. Just pick any of them. The guy was just on fire, and apparently needed his team to be at 2-3 and needling from the media to get him going this year. Good for you, Aaron.


Desperate Packers head to Reliant for Texans’ Sunday Night NBC debut

Posted by: Chris on October 13th at 12:05PM

Coming off a stunning loss to the Colts in Indianapolis, the Packers sit at 2-3 falling quickly behind division mates Chicago and Minnesota who are both 4-1.

Let me just get this out of the way right now. I’m going to pick the Packers to win this game, and I hate every second of it. I so, so want to be wrong.

As mentioned on Battle Red Radio Tuesday, I just think this Packer team is too good, too desperate, and too talented to continue playing at the level they have been playing.

I generally try to concentrate on TANGIBLE items when analyzing how I think a game will turn out. For this one, I’m going to fall into the trap of thinking that emotion and desperation can swing the outcome. At 5-0, the Texans are due for some kind of letdown. They actually seemed to have one against the Jets on Monday night (and let’s hope they got it out of their systems), but the Texans were fortunate to have it happen against a bad team.

The main reason I think the Packers may put on their best performance of the year is this – I can’t actually put my finger on WHY they are struggling so much. I know they have offensive line issues, but when Rodgers is well-protected, with the same personnel around him that he has had tremendous success with in the past, he just isn’t doing what he is capable of. It makes me think he will eventually figure it out. Why against the Texans? Well, because they just HAVE to.

Of course, there are tangible factors that make me think the Packers could come out victorious as well. We don’t yet know how the Texans are going to respond to the loss of Brian Cushing in terms of actual football impact, leaving out the leadership and emotional lift he brings. Tim Dobbins looks like he can do a serviceable job in his stead, but it’s definitely a problem in terms of covering running backs and tight ends. But that brings me to an important point…

Brian Cushing is a great linebacker – but like Dobbins or anyone else who would play in his place, he’s not great at coverage either. Especially since I fully expect the Packers to run WR Randall Cobb out of the backfield. Ten Cushings could not cover him.

So my point is, I don’t think the Texans will feel the full effect of Cushing’s loss as much against a Packer team that will likely throw the ball most of the time. It will be next week against the Ravens where the team will start to feel the sting.

I expect to get the best Packer effort of 2012 on Sunday night. While I don’t think that is enough to beat the Texans’ best effort, I just don’t know if Houston will be able to match the sharp focus that a talented, desperate team like the Packers will bring. There’s simply NO WAY that Aaron Rodgers has regressed. I just think he’s that good. Something’s not right with he and the Packers, but I think they put it together Sunday night and use that momentum to sling them back into the NFC North race.

I want so much to be wrong, and to be wrong, the Texans need to do the following: Get to Aaron Rodgers. It’s that simple. The Texans figure to keep the Packer running game in check, mostly because I don’t expect the Packers to try to get the running game going much. Rodgers will throw the ball enough that he’s going to get his stats – but it will be all about Houston’s ability to limit big plays. With their top WR Greg Jennings already ruled out, that’s a start. However the Packers have many other weapons in Cobb, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, etc. It’s unclear whether Jermichael Finley will play, but he would certainly be a matchup problem for the Texans, as he is for every team (except that the Packers just can’t seem to take advantage of that!)

On offense, I don’t expect the Texans to struggle much, unless they just come out unprepared or flat, which I can’t imagine happening on Sunday Night Football. The Texans will have to find a way to slow Clay Matthews down with chips from the running backs and extra blockers, but I also expect Gary Kubiak to “trust his guys” to make blocks so he can have as many pieces as possible available in the passing game. That’s a dangerous game when you’re talking about Matthews, but Houston needs to also be weary of pressure coming from other places. The Packers are tied for first in the NFL with 18 sacks.

A lot of people are picking this to be a shootout. I don’t see it going that way, but I think it will be a tough, back-and-forth game that will go to the last series.

WANT TO BE WRONG!!!

…but I’m picking:

Packers 27
Texans 24