As expected, Gary Kubiak is getting a contract extension.
Despite being a huge Gary Kubiak guy, I’m kind of back and forth about this business of giving him a contract extension.
Extension’s effect on free agency and coaching hires is a bit overblown.
I suppose it does make sense that having your coach under contract for more than one season is more attractive for free agents – but I think this is way overblown. Money talks in NFL free agency – louder than anything. Much louder than continuity. Do you think if Albert Haynesworth would have known that the Redskins were going to switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 that he would say “thanks but no thanks” to his $40 million guaranteed? Not likely. Maybe it could have been a tiebreaker, but I’m guessing Tampa Bay didn’t have the same amount on the table. The same concept applies to mid-level free agents as well.
As far as coaches, having only one year left on Kubiak’s contract didn’t preclude the Texans from being able to hire Rick Dennison as their offensive coordinator. It didn’t stop them from getting a new QB coach. Sure, Kubiak might have told both guys that he was about to be extended, but I’m guessing these guys didn’t sign with a “if Kubiak doesn’t get extended, our contract is voided” clause.
Sure, the extension is factor in free agency and coaching hires, but I don’t think it’s nearly as big a deal as it’s made out to be.
Kubiak’s win/loss record in the AFC South.
Gary Kubiak’s coaching record against his own division 7-17. Personally, I look at division record as a good indicator of how good a coach is. You’re facing the same teams every year, and if you’re as good as the other coaches – you find a way to at least keep it CLOSE to .500 in that time. Let’s not forget that the Texans haven’t been awful during Kubiak’s tenure. They’ve only had one losing season in four years, and a boatload of mediocrity.
I know it has been a strong division during this stretch, but the coaches and systems have all been the same. Jim Caldwell is the new coach in Indy, but they’re not doing THAT much different than they were during the Tony Dungy era. If you’re a good coach, and you’re preparing against the same systems and same coaches every season – you do better than 7-17.
That really gives me pause when I think about Kubiak getting an extension, and Kubiak’s ability as a coach overall. I support the guy and always have his back, but… 7-17.
It’s not like an extension means McNair won’t drop the hammer.
Bob McNair is sick of losing. A lot of people will be surprised by this extension, but they shouldn’t be. If the Texans bottom-out next year, I don’t think McNair will hesitate. He’s got the money to buy Kubiak out or just pay him what he’s owed according to the extension. That said – if the Texans once again finish in the 7-9 to 9-7 range next year, Kubes will be back and a lot of us won’t be happy.
Next season, we will find out a lot about Kubiak and the team’s future as a whole. 2009 was a perfect storm… Matt Schaub stayed healthy, Andre Johnson was once again a monster, and the defense improved after a rough start. On top of that, they had a fairly easy schedule on paper, and suddenly figured out how to win on the road. But they couldn’t win the big games, they couldn’t beat the top teams, they couldn’t finish, and once again they were garbage in their own division.
When the Texans go into next season, there will be uneasiness and uncertainty about the running game, and they will have what looks to be one hell of a tough schedule on paper.
We’ll see what they’re made of. We’ll see what Gary Kubiak is made of.
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Feb 2, 2010 at 14:28:18
Yeah, people calling for Kubiak’s head after four straight losses in the division are probably fawning all over him now. I agree with Chris and still think 1-5 in the division is a terrible indicator of the Texans progress. I don’t support an extension. At most he should have gotten one more year for now. The Texans win four non-divisional games to finish the season after they virtually elminated themselves from playoff contention, the other playoff contenders piss away enough games to bring the Texans back into contention in the final week, and Kubiak suddenly goes from questions about his job to getting an extension. It’s amazing how polarizing the NFL is. You win this week, you’re great. You lose, you suck. Pats fans booing their team during the playoffs despite three championships. It’s just amazing.
Feb 2, 2010 at 18:50:07
what if next season is just plain bad for the texans? i think he should at least wait one more season. the team is too inconsistnt.
Feb 3, 2010 at 01:46:03
Woa. You think if Kubiak goes 7-9 next year he’ll return?
I told someone else that exact same thing earlier today, and they got pissed at me and told me I was crazy.
The fear is, with a big, new contract, McNair will lean more towards giving Gary “one more year” if we tank next year.
Sure, he’s got billions to buy Gary out, but, he’s no fool. He doesn’t want to toss away tens of millions of dollars. Plus, Kubiak will “Opie” him to death with the aw shucks, thing, and McNair will fold.
Feb 3, 2010 at 09:05:16
Well, I agree with Richard Justice…
…and now that I have lost ALL credibility, let me continue.
Basically, you HAVE to consider keeping Kubiak as a better option than starting over with what would probably have been Leslie Frazier or Perry Fewell. The Texans are perceived to be just a few pieces away from being a serious Super Bowl contender, and a new coach and their new system (not to mention the well-proven fact that new coaches mean new quarterbacks) would probably not help us win in 2010.
So, if you going with keeping Kubiak to try and finish what he started, then you have to extend him. You all know how ruthless we Houston fans can be as we grow ever tired of teams that can’t bring home the hardware (it’s been, what, 14 years since Hakeem fade-away jumpered us a title?). If the Texans didn’t leap into the driver’s seat of the playoffs and division, we would have been calling for his firing and discussing new coaching options even more than ever, and that’s not going to help this team.
It’s like when I say franchise Owen Daniels instead of just tendering him. Kubiak still gets the message of win or else, but McNair is showing a gesture of good faith that Kubiak will side with the win instead of the else.
Feb 3, 2010 at 12:19:32
I see
Feb 3, 2010 at 12:22:06
Sorry, I hit submit by accident. Let me continue.
I see that you aren’t getting hammered as hard by people as they are onto me for saying I don’t like the extension. People are acting like I’m putting down their father or something.
Your division thing makes even another point against it. But, what the hell do I know?
My take is on the top of my page at Dontmesswithtexans.com if you’re interested.
Feb 3, 2010 at 23:24:43
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/337308-2010-nfl-mock-draft-post-senior-bowl-edition#page/33
this is good website for all houston sports. It is found on chron.com. the first mock draft had us taking Price out of UCLA. this one had us taking taylor Mays. Kyle feel free to comment on mays and price.
Feb 3, 2010 at 23:57:16
@ Mike
Where are you getting hammered? I checked the site and at BRB… or is it happening on your FB?
@ Truth
Ugh. I do my best to not bag on other blogs, but I don’t think highly of Bleacher Report. They too often have zero journalistic integrity, don’t distinguish between speculation and fact, and very often they don’t bother with spelling or grammar checks. I know Vega from now-defunct DGDB&D blogs there, and he’s the guy who I’m hoping can raise the quality of that site.
Then again – it might be much better now. I haven’t read in a long time because of REPEATED garbage I’ve seen over there.
With DGDB&D gone, I don’t get the quick easy links to Vega’s blogs. I guess I should go over there and slog through to look for his entries.
Feb 4, 2010 at 10:28:41
Okay, so here’s my take on Price and Mays
Price fits the Texans mold of drafting first-round d-linemen, and he fits our need to improve the pass rush from the inside, but, for Price to work, Okoye would have to line up on the nose with Price at 3-tech. If Okoye is really 315 like nfl.com suggests, then it COULD work, and Brian Price is in an absolute dogfight with Jared Odrick for best DT not named Suh and McCoy
As for Mays, the Senior Bowl itself showed some promise of his ability to stop being the “Shoulder of Doom” and actually be a free safety, but the week of practice before that showed a serious lack of fundamentals. That said, I think Frank Bush is going to see the killer instinct that attracted him to Brian Cushing and think that Mays could develop into something special, but I don’t think Taylor Mays is better than Thomas, Allen, or Burnett, so he’d have to have a meteoric fall for me to be happy landing him.
Feb 4, 2010 at 22:13:59
Chris, it’s in the comments at BRB. Plus a lot on my DMWT site. I just don’t post the comments with a ton of profanity on there as to not get the site blocked.
Feb 4, 2010 at 22:25:07
Hahaha! That makes sense, yes. I also want to keep this site from getting blocked by work filters, so I hear ya.
Feb 4, 2010 at 23:06:40
Well, it’s a done deal now. What I find amazing about casual fans is how badly they missed on the talent level of the roster when Gary Kubaik got here. Switching from a power o offense into a ZBS. Moving from a 4-3 from a 3-4 defense. Buying a new quarter back. Anyone of these things would have set us back five years. And the shear multitude of the moves is mind boggling. The fact he’s done it in four is pretty amazing in my opinion. That all of the moves when he got here coupled with the fact that Manning is a HOFer and Pollian does a better job of drafting players for his empty slots than we do, (1-7 does not lie), I can understand the knives out for Kubiak’s scalp. However, he’s improved every year. Game management. Play calling. Teaching our guys how to win. And the very first thing that an organization , with all due respect to John Lopez and other 610 monkeys, must have is stability. Mr. McNair bought that with the new deal.
Feb 7, 2010 at 22:40:08
Fully agree with you Chris that the extension was not necessary, and that it’s effect on FA and asst. coach signings is exaggerated. I also think that the extension was a year too long, but as you pointed out contracts don’t mean that much in the NFL.
Completely disagree with you that if the Texans go 7-9 that McNair won’t buy out Kubes and risk entering another rebuilding phase. While Kubes has improved his game management during his tenure, he is hardly without weaknesses. If we fall below .500 are are essentially eliminated from the playoffs, only to have a meaningless strong finish to salvage a mediocre record, then Kubiak should be let go. It’s time for the Texans to at least go 3-3 in the division. Next year’s schedule on paper looks tougher so if we repeat our 5 game divisional losing streak, we will be toast, and Kubiak will have to be dismissed.
Feb 8, 2010 at 00:26:48
You’ve got to give Kubiak a break. He’s got possibly the youngest team in the league. He took the worst team and now they are consistently in the middle of the pack. We definately should do better in the division, but a win is a win and a loss is a loss. You can’t say that Kubiak is a bad coach because he is losing to Manning and the Colts, even if they are using the same system as last year. It’s Peyton Manning. He’s quite possibly the best quarterback out there. Now if he gets fired, it needs to be for something like… Oh I don’t know, calling a HB toss pass for an interception in the red zone. But if we could get a semi-decent end of the game kicker, we would have beat New Orleans tonight.