Here is my previous shot at a seven-round Texans mock draft. I figure I should get it out there before free agency officially begins, so it doesn’t get too lost in the shuffle.
Here are important things to keep in mind while reading:
1 – I challenged myself to not make a single pick that I made in my first mock. That was difficult.
2 – I was, I think, VERY disciplined about draft slotting. No Orakpo or Brown in the first, no Sintim in the second, no Brace in the third, no Gartrell Johnson in the 7th, etc. I might have reached on a couple of picks, but I tried very hard not to pick someone who will not be there when that particular pick comes around. This made things incredibly difficult, especially in rounds 2-4.
3 – If you recall, mock 1 assumed no trades. Mock 2 assumes a trade based on what we got for #18 last season… that is, trading down into the mid-20s, picking up an extra third, and picking up an extra sixth… a carbon-copy of what went down with Baltimore. This also assumes the Sage Rosenfels trade goes down as reported, so in full: 1 (mid-20s), 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, 7. Ten picks in total.
Round 1 (mid-20s): Robert Ayers DE Tennessee
Oh, man – was this ever a difficult decision. The Texans must must must take a DE with one of their first two picks. I considered OLB Clint Sintim in this spot and DE Paul Kruger in the second, but that violated rule #1 above. So, in this case we get Ayers, who really only had one big season at Tennessee. At the Combine, he didn’t impress with his bench press, but I’ll always take game results over Combine results when you’re talking about a guy at a big-time program who plays against big-time competition. Ayers had a great Senior Bowl (1.5 sacks, defensive MVP). I don’t think he’s going to be a superstar, but I think he fits the mold of a player that can be consistently good for a number of years. I just don’t think there’s going to be an “elite” pass-rushing DE from #15 down.
Other pick(s) considered: OLB Clint Sintim
Round 2: Ron Brace DT Boston College
I couldn’t resist. I want a big space-eater, and I want him now. I like Frank Okam, but it would be a hell of a lot to assume he can be our guy. He just didn’t show enough on the field. Bill Kollar likes quick, athletic guys on his line, but there isn’t a defense in the league that doesn’t benefit from a big, wide NT that eats up two blockers. I’ve seen Brace taken in the third in some rounds, but I don’t think he’ll fall that far. Admittedly, this is a big risk. My biggest concern is that he played alongside B.J. Raji, and I would assume that means that Brace was often facing only one blocker while Raji was eating up two. This is a big roll of the dice, but he won’t be there in the third, and man can you imagine how much better our line gets instantly if he pans out?
Other pick(s) considered: DE Jarron Gilbert, S/CB Sean Smith
Round 3: Tyrone McKenzie OLB S. Florida
McKenzie is versatile, as he can play inside in a pinch. He’s not an especially great cover linebacker, but he’s got good line-to-line speed and solid instincts. He’s a very sure tackler, but not a thumper. (Hey, DeMeco’s not a thumper either). He went to three colleges total, but produced big numbers at all of them. He also played well in the Senior Bowl. I might be close to violating rule #2 above.
Other pick(s) considered: DE Lawrence Sidbury
Round 3: Chip Vaughn SS Wake Forest
The Texans have apparently locked up FS Eugene Wilson, now it’s time to go after a guy to take over the SS position. The coaches love Dominique Barber, and it would certainly be out of character for the Texans to take a SS this high – but I’d love to see Vaughn in Steel Blue. Vaughn made a lot of timely big plays at Wake Forest. He’s not a good cover guy, but man can he ever deliver the big hit. He has a bit of the the Frenchy Reeves disease of not always being able to get his hands up. Of course, that’s not as much of a death sentence when you’re a strong safety.
Other pick(s) considered: DT Dorell Scott
Round 4: Andre Brown RB NC State
While I love the low-round value of Gartrell Johnson as our young RB compliment to Steve Slaton, I cannot get over Andre Brown. I could go on and on regurgitating the positives I’ve read about him, but all you need to know is six feet tall, 224 pounds, and a 4.49 40-yard dash. Not elite speed, but for THAT size and weight – I’ll take it. My only concern is that this might be the floor of his availability on draft day.
Other pick(s) considered: C A.Q. Shipley
Round 4: Mark Parson CB Ohio
Kyle definitely helped sell me on Parson. I’d love to see him replace DeMarcus Faggins at the bottom of the depth chart. Since this is Kyle’s guy, I’ll point you to his explanation, look for step 10.
Other pick(s) considered: S Darcel McBath
Round 5: Gerald Cadogan OT Penn State
With Ephraim Salaam now gone, the backup LT is far too important of a position to leave up in the air. The coaches love Rashad Butler as the guy who can backup either LT or RT, but Cadogan is a good fit who fits the mold of a solid backup. He’s a high-character guy, and was a two-time Academic All-American, a consensus All-Big Ten first teamer, and has a fantastic work ethic. He was the fifth-fastest offensive lineman at the NFL Combine.
Other pick(s) considered: CB Morgan Trent
Round 6: Cecil Newton C Tennessee State
He’s got the size and speed to fit the zone blocking scheme, though he could stand to add a few pounds. Obviously playing at Tennessee State, his level of competition is suspect, but in the words of one draft site I read – he consistently dominated all season long. If you’re going to question the level of competition, it’s at least good to know that he dominated said level of competition.
Round 6: Johnny Knox WR Abilene Christian
With Jacoby Jones perhaps at the end of his rope, I wouldn’t mind the Texans taking a shot at another small-school WR. Knox ran the third-fastest 40-yard time at the Combine, a 4.34. He’s also an experienced punt returner who could pick up the slack along with Darnell Jenkins if Jones doesn’t pan out. The team might be a little timid about drafting him though, as there’s a fairly good chance he’d mirror Jacoby in that he might not be much of a contributor as a receiver. One intangible he has in his corner – he’s got a cool name.
Round 7: Rich Ohrnberger OG Penn State
Another Penn State guy, and another perfect fit for the ZBS. He might end up not getting drafted, but he’s just the kind of guy the Texans would target for some offensive line depth. He’s a hard worker, and he has the #1 trait I love in a lineman – a vicious, nasty streak. Wherever this guy ends up, I guarantee you you’ll hear about him getting in fights in training camp.
There it is. Here’s the full haul:
Round 1 (mid-20s): Robert Ayers DE Tennessee
Round 2: Ron Brace DT Boston College
Round 3: Tyrone McKenzie OLB S. Florida
Round 3: Chip Vaughn SS Wake Forest
Round 4: Andre Brown RB NC State
Round 4: Mark Parson CB Ohio
Round 5: Gerald Cadogan OT Penn State
Round 6: Cecil Newton C Tennessee State
Round 6: Johnny Knox WR Abilene Christian
Round 7: Rich Ohrnberger OG Penn State
Who do you like, who do you hate? How does this compare with the previous mock (aside from the obvious positive that this one had more picks)?
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Feb 26, 2009 at 17:13:37
Chris,
Great effort, and way to stick to reality. Too many people opt for the “pie in the sky” approach. Job well done.
Now for my two cents. I don’t think Robert Ayers is worth a 1st round pick. Sorry, it’s just that I think he’ll be exposed by the massive, mauling RT’s in the NFL. While he’ll be a solid DE for years, he’s just not worth what you have to pay a 1st round pick. Let another team settle for mediocrity. I’d rather have a Kruger, or a Barwin in the 2nd.
Now, call me crazy, but if Knowshon Moreno is available in the late 1st I’d snatch him up in a heartbeat. He’s an elite player who seems to be slipping in a lot of mocks. That’s insane! He ran a 4.48 at the combine, threw up 25 reps, and notched the second best 3-cone time of all RB’s. He’s a low-cut powerhouse with breath-taking body control. If you coupled him with Slaton our offense would be unstoppable. Seriously, our offense would be unstoppable. Moreno is a freak in the Red Zone. Get him inside the 20, and feed him the pill. We would close the performance gap that has us 3rd in total yardage yet 21st in overall scoring. Moreno helps our defense by moving the chains and eating up the clock. He also protects Schaub by taking some of the snaps away, thus keeping Schaub’s jersey clean. He would instantly reduce our turnovers drastically. Actually, his selection would solve a lot of problems, and I’ve just talked myself into lobbying Bob McNair on his behalf..
Knowshon Moreno is to offense what Rey Maualuga is to defense. Simply the best playmaker on the field. Watch the game tapes of Georgia and USC, both schools with loads of talent, and those two immediately jump out as the best players on their teams. Maybe Taylor Mays and Matt Stafford will each be drafted higher, but they’re not better players.
Feb 26, 2009 at 17:43:32
Can you please prove that moreno ran a 4.48 (link) i have a hard time accepting that as the truth.
I agree that Ayers is not a player worthy of the late first rounder that this scenario suggest however clay matthews would be a solid starter from day one.
Feb 26, 2009 at 18:16:12
Steven,
Everyone has been questioning the 40 times at the Combine. For some reason, the 40′s listed on NFL.com aren’t off the Master list handed to teams. Weird, huh? I got my 40′s from a reliable source I trust. You’ll notice some differences there from other reported times. I feel strongly that as players have their Pro-Days, and their times are so much better, we’ll find out somehting strange went down in Indy. Just wait until these kids have their private workouts. Anyway, here’s my source:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/TSX
Feb 26, 2009 at 19:25:56
I like this mock better, as far as how logical it is. The other one was a bit all over the place. Ayers is a possibility at 15, even.
I’m not big on Ayers’ measurables, and he doesn’t have a long resume to bump up against that. Maybe Antonio Smith signing tomorrow means no DE in the first?
I dig the Ron Brace pick. Did you see how fast BJ Raji was at the Combine btw? They threw video of his run over Rich Eisen’s and it was absolutely hilarious. Raji is a Haloti Ngata-type beast.
Lots of talk about the RB 40 times… Football Outsiders has a great write-up about the 40-times this year. Basically, everyone is throwing a fit because there are no 4.3 running backs this year, and even the cornerbacks are looking slow. But the wide receivers put up good numbers, so it’s hard to imagine that it’s the new turf in the new stadium. And, they found out that the positional average times are remarkably consistent with the past few years or so, so they don’t think anything is up.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2009/speed-score-2009 is the link.
Knowshon Moreno is talented, but the Football Outsiders article also mentions how poorly he did in their “Speed Score” metric. He officially put up a 4.6. Speed scores aren’t a sure thing, but Moreno put up a 2nd rounder’s score, not a 1st rounder’s. And generally speaking, speed scores above 100 are typically good players while those below 100 are replacement level players (with the exception of Brian Westbrook). Last year’s Pro Football Prospectus had a great essay on the topic.
Basically, Beanie Wells is the only first round RB prospect this year.
How about IAN JOHNSON? You’ve gotta like that guy for (A) tearing out the throats of Okies everywhere and (B) for having the suavest proposal EVER.
Feb 26, 2009 at 19:31:07
Oh, by the way… Andre Brown got the highest Speed Score as well.
Feb 26, 2009 at 21:05:15
I followed the link to the article regarding Speed Scores, and found it very interesting. I must admit Steve Slaton’s phenomenal rookie year certainly disproves it somewhat. Slaton was a TD machine in college, and sometimes you just have to believe your eyes.
It’s not the surface at Indy that the scouts believe caused the confusion, but the accuracy of the times reported. Teams always trust their own stopwatches, but some scouts questioned the difference in the times given to them for the same run by the NFL. Some reputable sights have Moreno’s 40-time at 4.48.
After the players have their Pro Days, then a proper evaluation can take place. BTW, footballoutsiders is a great sight.
Feb 26, 2009 at 21:25:23
Of course evaluations aren’t done yet, but the combine provides the opportunity for players to get compared under the same conditions. It’s indoors, it’s temperature controlled. Pro Days will be done outdoors lots of times, with wind blowing, some places being in the low 60s, some places in the high 80s for temperature.
The reasons I don’t think the electronic timing was screwed up are because (A) the AVERAGES for the position groups were right in line with what we’ve seen the past few years; (B) the only groups anyone is complaining about are the RBs and the CBs (who were tested with the safeties, btw), and (C) the timing is done… electronically. I’d trust that over a scout’s timing most days.
Scout timing is subject to human error, agents working the scouts to report better times for their clients or poor times for their competition, etc.
I doubt that the combine electronic times are just thrown away out of hand. Clubs pay $75,000 each year for the service of a third-party to conduct the combine, which includes the electronic timing. If they didn’t trust it at all, they would either demand that it be improved, or that it be scrapped and be reimbursed for that cost.
Really, I don’t even know why they have scouts there timing – maybe so they can immediately text message the times to their GMs? Or in case of a system failure with the electronic timing? I mean, you could always just go back and watch the video and get the time that way, in case you were paranoid about the electronic system misjudging a start or something.
You make a good point about Slaton, but he’s got a little less than a year under his belt, and there are always going to be outliers in any collection of data.
Feb 26, 2009 at 22:07:54
I’m not ruling out McCoy but did think Moreno looked faster to the naked eye but you never know.
Feb 26, 2009 at 23:07:31
Not to go all conspiracy theorist, but it would take a lot more than a handful of scouts questioning times to scrap a $75,000-a-year system that was most likely awarded in bureaucratic fashion by the NFL.
If a scout let an agent influence his report to his team, he’d be exposed and fired.
Feb 27, 2009 at 06:27:23
i heard that Ron Brace ran a 5.47 40 time, which, if true, would be the slowest time I have ever heard of for ANY prospect, including offensive linemen and everything else.
I know the 40 times were out of whack so the Pro Days are more important this year than ever before, but Brace had his chance to prove he could be the kind of nose tackle that gets to the backfield that we would want, and I don’t think he did.
I can understand Bobby Ayers in the first, mainly because he’s the best fit at LDE of the draft class, and he may not be there in the second. It’s a reach, but so was Chris Johnson for Tennessee last season, and that went fine. Draft value is important but, at the end of the day, you draft the guy that will help your team.
I like Chip Vaughn, and I have considered him for the Texans before, but, in my opinion, if we can’t find an SS who would leapfrog Barber by the end of training camp, then we should just wait and see how Barber does. Check the 2010 draft class. It is PACKED full of very enticing safeties. (and no, I am not talking about Klint Kubiak)
Andre Brown and Mark Parson would be awesome fourth round picks, further proving that the Texans might be served to trade down over and over again until their second round pick became six fourth round picks. Parson is a huge question mark because people either have him going somewhere in the third round (ceiling: #64 to PIT) or he’s not even on their radar. He’s suposed to be an elite press corner…yet he didn’t even get invited to the Combine.
the two linemen, Cadogan and Newton, weren’t on my radar, but, in my latest Texans mock, I had us grabbing three offensive linemen, so I’m glad to see that someone else agrees that just because our offense was top-notch doesn’t mean we should ignore it this year.
I’d love Johnny Knox(ville) if he fell that far, but I doubt he will. I wholeheartedly expect Oakland to draft Heyward Bey and this guy way too early, then line up these two and Johnny Lee Higgins and just let them run go routes every play and see if maybe THEN JaMarcus Russell can actually grasp an offense.
I’m also glad to see someone else pining for Rich Ohrnberger. Hey, it’s not every day that you can get an AP All-American second teamer in the 7th round (and this year, there might be two if Trimane Goddard falls)
Free Agent note: Not to toot my own horn, but since Super Bowl week I have been subliminally begging the Texans to sell Sage Rosenfels to the highest bidder (because what happened to Brad Lidge happened to him; he’s a good player who collapsed and lost all Houston fan support) and sign Ryan Fitzpatrick from the Bengals. Now, the only men standing in the way of this coming to fruition are Rex “12 Dozen Is A” Grossman and Dan “Hate Me” Orlovsky.
Mar 2, 2009 at 21:11:12
Chris, I like it, but I think you handicapped yourself by not picking any of you the players from your first mock. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Overall though, great insight. I’m glad someone has the balls to predict all seven rounds because I don’t.
Mar 2, 2009 at 21:32:04
@Jake
Yeah, absolutely… but it was jut part of the challenge. I didn’t want to just pick a few different guys then fall back on my late picks – too easy.
These are all just for fun anyway. None of what any of us come up with will end up even remotely close in the end, heh.
Mar 12, 2009 at 13:47:03
HI, SORRY FOR MY ENGLISH, I AM FROM MONTERREY MEXICO, I HAVE 37 AND I LOVE MY HOUSTON TEXANS, TKS FOR THIS SPACE.
I JUST HAVE A IDEA, SOMEBODY SAY THAT WE CAN TRADE WHIT THE CARDINALS, AM I RIGTH? AT WHAT PRICE, 2D ROUND WHIT A 4 ROUND? MAYBE? AND OF COURSE HIS FIRTS ROUND THE 31, OK?
WHAT HAPPEN, IF WE GIVE OUR FIRST ROUND #15 TO THE LIONS, AND THEY GIVE US IN RETURN, HIS 2 ROUND # 33 ( TWO AFTER THE CARDINALS SELECTIONS) HIS 3RD OR 4 ROUND, AND HIS 1 FIRST ROUND OF THE NEXT YEAR, ITS A CRAZY IDEA?, I NEVER SAW THAT SOME BODY SAY ANYTHING ABOUT THIS.
WHIT THE #33 2D ROUND SELECTION OF THE LIONS, WE CAN HAVE A VERY GOD PLAYER, WHAT DID YOU THING, AGAIN SORRY FOR MY ENGLISH, AND GO TEXANS.
TKD TAKE CARE