1 – If they stand pat at #15, the Houston Texans will not draft a defensive end.
The closer the draft gets, the more I’m convinced of this. Brian Orakpo will be off the board. Everette Brown, despite issues about his height (expected to measure at 6-3, ended up 6-1) will be off the board. Aaron Maybin is too risky, in my opinion. Unless Robert Ayers or Larry English (surprisingly weighed in at the Combine at 274 pounds) blows up to the point where the team thinks they’re worth what would right now seem like a reach at #15, I think the Texans are more likely to address their OLB situation. I see a lot of people saying that the release of Anthony Weaver is an even stronger indication that we’ll take a DE with the #15 pick – I don’t see it that way. More on that subject in an upcoming post.
2 – The Detroit Lions will not take a quarterback at #1.
I think the Era of Stupid is over in Detroit. GM Matt Millen is obviously gone, and they landed former Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz as their new head coach. The Lions need help everywhere, and I really feel like Schwartz shares the popular view (mine as well) that you build teams from front to back.
3 – USC LB Rey Maualuga will fall out of the top 15.
Questions about his coverage abilities and quiet rumblings of character issues will eventually overtake the hardnosed, nasty on-field reputation he has. His hamstring issue at the Combine won’t have anything to do with him falling out of the top 15, those things happen. He’ll slide, and make someone very happy when he falls in their lap. As I write this – I’ve just found this article, which seems to agree that he’ll slide. Maybe that thought is more widely held than I realized.
4 – Chris Wells will be the only RB picked in the first round.
It was a slowish crop this year, and I just don’t think there are a lot of game-changers at the top of the draft… similar to the WR position last year. Wells is just too fast for his size to not go in the first. If there were teams in the top 15 with huge RB needs, he’d go a lot higher than he’ll end up. I like Knowshon Moreno, but he kind of laid an egg with his 40-yard dash time at the Combine, and I think he’ll go early 2nd.
5 – The Dallas Cowboys will trade into the first round.
Simply because they operate under a Big Top run by the biggest bozo in the history of the circus – Jerry Jones. His poor puppet Wade Phillips (who I like and respect) will sit in the draft room with nothing to do but doodle, helplessly watching Jerry wheel and deal his way up to take someone who will do nothing… NOTHING to help the fact that the Dallas Cowboys are a complete and total disaster and in their current incarnation – literally an embarrassment to the NFL.
Hey, Jerry – Michael Vick gets out in July. Instruct your pal Roger Goodell not to drop an NFL suspension on him on top of his prison term. I’m pretty sure you’d let him torture and electrocute all of your pets in exchange for selling one more PSL.
So there you go. Some of those are going out on a limb, some of them – not so much. Hey, I’m putting myself out there. Now tell me where you think I’m wrong.
Feb 25, 2009 at 01:16:50
Larry English weighed in at 254 at the combine. I think Houston goes DE at 15 because I don’t think OLB, NT, or safety available will be worth the pick. Michael Johnson, Tyson Jackson (eww) or Aaron Maybin (double eww) are all possible options.
If I am the Detroit Lions, I take Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Aaron Curry, or BJ Raji. Probably the OT’s. Matt Stafford is simply not worth the #1 pick, and will be the second coming of, dare I say it, David Carr if taken.
Maualuga will probably drop to 20′s, for the reasons you have previously stated.
I still like Moreno more than Wells. Yeah, he had the better 40 time, but I’d rather not spend my 1st round pick on an oft-injured running back.
I believe the JerryJones will do anything to be ridiculous.
Feb 25, 2009 at 01:27:27
It says here English weighed in at 274.
I assume if it was fat and not muscle, we would have heard about it by now – but I don’t have NFL Network (GRRR) so I didn’t see him for myself.
Far as the DEs, I don’t think Jackson or Johnson is worth the 15th pick either. Maybin is debatable, but you know how I feel about him… I don’t want any part of him (despite picking him in that one co-op mock draft that I instantly regretted).
Johnson had a great Combine workout apparently, but I’ve read that his interviews did not go well. I don’t remember if it was LZ’s blog or not – but somewhere someone said that people were just kind of amazed at how much talent he has, yet has none of the intangibles or work ethic to do anything with it.
Feb 25, 2009 at 01:49:44
I was also going to mention that English weighed 255 and not 274, but with his 40-time he would be better off weighing more.
Knowshon Moreno isn’t about long speed. Just look at his 3-Cone time (6.82). It was 2nd among RB’s, and more accurately shows his skillset. He represents body control / agility / power. He also matched Beanie Wells by throwing up 25 reps at 225. Moreno is the best RB in this class, and can be on my team any time.
Now more than ever I want to trade back. It seems like the sweet spot in this draft is between picks 25 – 60. If Rick Smith can somehow bunch together 3 picks in that zone he’ll have done a phenomenal job.
I read on the Texans Fan Blog that Miami could be a match as a trade partner if someone they coveted fell to #15. We would give them #15 and both of our 4th’s in exchange for #25, #56, and their 5th. We would then have those three primo-value picks (#’s 25, 46, 56) I was talking about. Then you can still grab Rey Maualuga, Louis Delmas, and maybe Jarron Gilbert or Connor Barwin. Then at #77 we snag Pat White. So I’ll only predict this far for the Texans:
25. Rey Maualuga (MLB) USC
46. Louis Delmas (S) W.Mich
56. Connor Barwin (DE/OLB) Cinn
77. Pat White (QB/WR) W. Virg
108. Andre Brown (RB) N.C. ST
These guys would definitely improve our team, but the thing that scares me is that we really don’t address our DE need. Unfortunately, this class of DE’s stinks. If someone wanted to switch out Paul Kruger for Barwin I’d listen, but Barwin is clearly the better athlete. Sean Smith for Delmas? Maybe. Robert Ayers or Tyson Jackson for Maualuga? No. Ayers got 18 reps on 225. So that makes him slow, weak, and small. No thanks. Jackson is great against the run, but lacks that burst to get to the QB. Unless Orakpo falls, DE shouldn’t be addressed with the first pick.
Feb 25, 2009 at 07:14:05
Watching NFL live last night, Todd McShay said that Malcolm Jenkins hurt his draft stock by running a relatively slow 40 time.
He also said that Jenkins probably projected more as a FS than a CB at this point. I’m sure some of that is just McShay over-reacting to the combine, because he doesn’t have anything else to do, but if this is actually the case, Jenkins as a FS would be a pick I would love to make at 15.
Feb 25, 2009 at 08:44:21
so far, with the Combine’s results not yet disseminated into my usual suspects of draft research, I’d say this is our no-trade-down result:
1. Clint Sintim – still the ONLY strongside linebacker, and walterfootball.com’s Matt Mcguire has said that it wouldn’t shock him if Sintim goes Top 20. And, if the Texans try to fix their problem of undersized linebackers by drafting 234-pound Clay Matthews, I will shove my foot through my computer.
2. Robert Ayers – yeah, I know, he has probably bounced into the first round, but, again, this is going off of a world that hasn’t finished processing the Combine
3. Mark Parson – I still think he is one of only a handful of prospects with the potential to replace Dunta Robinson if it turns out that is needed. (BTW, youtube this guy’s draftguys.com highlight reel from the Senior Bowl practices. A tight end has a football go through his hands, and Parson, who was covering someone else, catches it perfectly. Suh-weet.
4. Andre Brown – His 4.49 probably makes this impossible, but he has some other issues (like never carried the load in college) that could help him fall our way. He has replaced Rashad Jennings in my mind as the prototype for a power back compliment to Slaton.
4a. Chris Baker – He had a solid combine, and I think he’ll be a great fit at Nose Tackle next year. Face it, folks, Travis Johnson will perform like its his contract year and then take his show on the road, and Kollar’s demand for athletic linemen who break into the backfield DOES NOT INCLUDE A 365-POUND NOSE TACKLE, so Okam is out. Baker (or Sammie Lee Hill) have the athleticism to build upon a year of knowledge.
5. Deon Butler – Johnny Knox(ville) is tempting, but he’ll probably get reached for way too early by Oakland or Tennessee. Butler is still the protoypical slot receiver.
6. Phillip Hunt – A more realistic pick here is Mizzou’s Stryker Sulak, but I like the idea of grabbing a situational pass rusher to compliment Bob Ayers.
7. Andrew Hartline – A solid ZBS offensive tackle. Makes great depth.
Undrafted – Rich Ohrnberger – See under Hartline, replace tackle with guard.
By the way, expect the Texans to NOT DRAFT A SAFETY!
Free Safety – We have Eugene Wilson this year, and WE WILL DRAFT KLINT KUBIAK next year.
Strong Safety – The Texans want to give Dominique Barber a look as a starter. William Moore at exceptional value is the only possibility here, because he is the only player in the draft class who has a decent chance of leap-frogging Barber, who has a year of soaking up the playbook as an advantage over the rookies.
PLUS, the safety class for next year is STACKED!!!!
Feb 25, 2009 at 10:25:07
Charles Davis from NFL.com thinks we will draft Mark Sanchez in the 1st because we are losing Sage. Can’t you lose creditibility for making predictions like that? Any way, I can see those 5 things happenning. Knownshon is the iffy one. I see a top 7 draft pick getting traded. Mark me down for that one Chris.
Feb 25, 2009 at 10:30:58
I still think that “Shaddy” McCoy will run well and be a first round talent!
Feb 25, 2009 at 10:48:38
My first thought when I read Charles Davis’ Mock Draft was, “Why is this guy insulting us?”
Feb 25, 2009 at 11:21:37
carson
sign me up for your picks bro. I think pat white could be an interesting pick, but ray ray with demeco and adibi/diles looks pretty strong to me.
i still want us to get gatrell johnson in the 5th or 6th because he is the most complete compliment for what we need if you take the value of the later round pick instead of taking one in the third.
i do like andre brown though, alot.
CHRIS, i have heard rumblings about a FA back the texans are talking to. people seem to think it is droughns, but could it be d ward from NY (not at 4 mill a year though)
Feb 25, 2009 at 11:34:31
@Allen
I’ve seen that too – I hope it’s not Droughns, but he’s probably the kind of guy they’d target. He’ll be cheap an uninteresting… which is fine as long as it doesn’t change their draft plan.
The thing that makes me think it’s NOT Droughns is the idea that the deal is just waiting for Friday to be official. I mean, why would any team scramble to get Ruben Droughns? It’s not like he’s going to be coveted in free agency.
That kind of thinking would lead me to believe it’s someone who might be more sought-after… otherwise, they’d just get to it whenever.
Feb 25, 2009 at 11:47:16
Don Banks, who is almost as big of a blow-hard groupthinker as Peter King, has his mock out today with us getting Tyson Jackson. Mauauauauauaualuga goes #5 in his mock as well.
This draft seems like it is going to be harder to predict than previous ones. The only positions where you KNOW who is #1 is at DT, QB, and WR, and even then, the QB is seen as a ho-hum prospect himself.
I don’t even want to bother trying to figure out who goes where, because I am certain that there are going to be two or three trades in the first round. There are guys I’d like to see us get, namely Orakpo, but I’m more sure of who I DON’T want us to get – the 305-lb type DTs, Brian Cushing, supposed DEs that are smaller than a lot of OLB (Aaron Maybin namely). I’ll watch the draft this year because I really have no idea who we’re going to be gunning for.
Feb 25, 2009 at 11:55:44
@ Tailgate Andy – Jenkins is reminding me of Antrel Rolle a few years ago, and I’m sure I’m not the first to make that comparison. Someone will probably draft him as a corner and move him to FS a few years too late. Apparently Ohio State was playing a lot of zone coverage last year (I have to take the word of others on this since I wouldn’t know), and that seems to be a good thing in a FS prospect and a bad thing in a corner prospect. I’d be fine with him at FS @ 15, but I wouldn’t be super-stoked about it. He’s no Taylor Mays.
Feb 26, 2009 at 21:14:32
One name that isn’t being talked about much but would be a perfect fit for us would be Maurice Morris of the Seahawks. Guy is exactly what we are looking for in a #2 RB. Morris can run, catch and block. Oh and he is a bigger back for short yardage plays as well. He isn’t expected to get big money via free agency either.