Who knows if Taylor Mays would have lasted to #15 – or if the Texans even would have drafted him. All I know is, that after a brief time of being locked in to a defensive tackle as our top pick, I had become enamored with Mays, and he had shot to the top of my want list – similar to the way Matt was hot for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie last year. Well – that was more like LUST, and my desire for Mays hadn’t gotten that far. Yet.
So who do I pin my hopes on now? At this early stage – pre-NFL Combine, and with little to go on other than highlights and internet words – it’s USC middle linebacker Rey Maualuga. Judging from what I’ve read, he’s only slightly more likely to fall to us than Brian Orakpo, so for now, until I’m convinced otherwise – I’m on that bandwagon.
Two big problems with this pick are 1) it’s not our biggest need position and 2) some guy named DeMeco Ryans is doing just fine as our current middle linebacker.
Problem 1 – LB is not our biggest need.
Bigger need 1: Defensive Tackle
So far, I don’t see a defensive back, end, or tackle that is as close to a sure thing at his position as I think Maualuga is. If Alabama DT Terrence Cody changes his mind and enters the draft, he might be a guy I gravitate toward. Unfortunately, as you read this right now – I guarantee that guy is murdering the first of a dozen donuts. By time you finish reading this – he’ll be on his way to the donut shop for another dozen. I know we want a big space-eater, but this guy is is approaching planet status.
Boston College DT B.J. Raji is another intriguing tackle… but his commitment to football has been questioned, and he is apparently known to take plays off. I don’t know a lot about the guy, but hey – Mario Williams was a guy who people accused of taking plays off, and he’s turned out pretty well. Again – Raji’s not a guy I think will be a sure thing hit.
Bigger need 2: Defensive End
Florida State DE Everette Brown is another intriguing prospect, but he might be better-suited to be a rushing linebacker in a 3-4… I’m not sure he’s a guy who could hold up to the run so well in a 4-3. At this point, I’d be fine with him as a Texan, but again – not convinced he’s a sure thing.
Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson is a guy who looks great on paper. He’s got elite speed, and from what I can tell in my limited viewing of his performances – a very explosive first step. He strikes me as the kind of prospect who doesn’t get people overly excited, but turns out to be better than a guy or two who gets selected before him. He’s definitely a DE I want to learn more about, and I’ll be very interested in how he grades out at the Combine.
Bigger need 3: Safety
Taylor Mays is gone, and there isn’t another safety who does anything for me in the first round. A lot of us already agree that as of now, Missouri Safety William Moore is just too steep of a drop-off from Mays… and as far as the other secondary position, with all the money tied up in Jacques Reeves and (hopefully) Dunta Robinson, there’s no cornerback I would jump on at #15 unless Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins were to miraculously drop.
Back to Maualuga
I’ve seen several USC games over the past two seasons. Over and over, the guy who jumped off the screen more than anyone else was Rey. The guy is a natural-born playmaker. I’ve never seen a college linebacker who absolutely DESTROYS a screen like Maualuga. He has great, but not elite speed – yet he closes on ball-carriers about as fast as I can ever remember seeing. That shows that he’s also got great natural instincts. He might be the most NFL-ready player in the entire draft.
The other thing I love about this guy, is that almost all of his shortcomings are a result of his ridiculous aggression. The guy is such a freight train, that it gets him in trouble. There have been times where he’s so zeroed-in on delivering a bone-shattering hit, that he doesn’t wrap up and his target slips by. Eh, it happens when you have a guy who brings the pain like Rey does.
He played at a big-time program, he remained consistent throughout his entire time in college, and he never had any durability issues. I see no reason why he couldn’t step in and be as successful a rookie as Patrick Willis or… DeMeco Ryans.
Problem 2 – DeMeco Ryans is our MLB.
DeMeco played his college ball at OLB, but he’s been a Pro-Bowl selection and a Rookie of the Year winner playing in the middle in his three years as a pro. The old adage “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” clearly applies here. Ryans is obviously one of the top MLBs in the NFL… but hear me out.
In his third season, Ryans played hurt for almost the entire year. He was still effective, but just wasn’t his old self until late in the season. There’s a lot of wear and tear on his body, and part of that is because the Texans defensive tackles have been so bad. Blockers often get to the second level, forcing him to make plays on ball-carriers that on many other teams would be made by guys on the defensive line.
Ryans doesn’t miss plays, much less full games. He is, simply put, a warrior… but he’s logged a TON of snaps in his short career. If the Texans were to move him back to his original position outside, it would no doubt free him up to be more of a playmaker and a pass-rusher. That’s not really disputable… we know Ryans could play OLB just fine and would probably excel at it… the argument is, again – the old adage as previously stated.
Along with Mario Williams at his position, there isn’t a spot on the defense that is in better hands than DeMeco at MLB. But if you could get a guy who could potentially be as good as DeMeco or better, why not pull the trigger? A starting linebacker corps of Ryans, Maualuga, and Adibi would be absolutely SICK.
The other potential advantage is that now the younger, less battle-worn Maualuga could step in at MLB and take the abuse while we continue to (sigh) improve the defensive tackles and d-line as a whole. It could potentially keep DeMeco slightly more healthy, and maybe even extend his career a little bit.
Gary Kubiak is open to moving DeMeco
In his final radio appearance of the season on 610AM (scroll to The Gary Kubiak Show on 12-29-08), co-host Matt Jackson asked Kubiak if he would be open to moving DeMeco back to the outside. This is typically the kind of question that Kubiak doesn’t give a straight answer to, but I was surprised when he replied:
“I think you play your best three and if you have to move those guys around, you do what you have to do. Could DeMeco play outside? I don’t have any doubt that he could.”
A man can dream, can’t he?
So there it is. My case for Rey Maualuga. If only he would drop to us, I would be jumping out of my skin if the Texans landed him. If he puts on a stellar performance at the Combine, this probably becomes a pipe dream. If the early Mock Drafts are to be believed, it might already be one… but really, we shouldn’t totally rule anything out until at least after the Combine.
If Rey isn’t there, the same kind of scenario with Taylor Mays/William Moore plays out. James Laurinaitis is a nice prospect, but he’s no Rey Maualuga. If Rey is gone, I probably fall back to taking the best DE available… but for now, Rey is my guy.
I’m interested in three pieces of feedback from you:
1) Your take on DeMeco moving to the outside IF and only IF Rey fell to #15.
2) At this early stage, who is your #1 want for our first round pick?
3) Which DE prospects would you be happy to nab at #15?
Jan 15, 2009 at 06:26:13
1) The only problem I’d have with moving DeMeco around is that I don’t know if he’s cut out to be a SLB. I think with his speed, he’d be a terror at WLB. I know that Adibi isn’t cut out to be a SLB, which still leaves us with a bit of a hole at SLB.
I’m really not as attentive as I should be, but I thought the knock on DeMeco was that he was a little undersized. If this were the case, wouldn’t it be even worse to put him at SLB where he’s (theoretically) having to deal with offensive lineman?
2) My number one want out of the first round, is William Moore, unless another Safety turns out to be the best S available. What our defense needs the most right now is solid Safety play, even more than it needs a Space-Eating DT, or a bookend DE.
3) At this point, I don’t know enough about any of the DE’s to know who I want.
Jan 15, 2009 at 07:58:39
I gotta see the combine.
A lot of these Mock drafts have went down the toilet due to the simple fact they were already out before people declared.
And Curly-head from OU screwed up my NFC team(Falcons) from picking up Greisham.
Jay Mock and Mel Kiper I need there guidance.I have very little interest in college football outside of the University of Miami.So as far as prospect knowledge I’m extremely limited.
But NO LB NO LB NO ILB NO OLB NO LB is how I feel unless we get one through free agency.I actually thought our linebacker core as a group improved this year…will further improve by cutting Greenwood(lol).
DT,S,DE Those are top priorities,and its not a bad thing if we trade down.
Early second round….if that Running back from Colorado St. has a good combine I say we take him second round ASAP!
Jan 15, 2009 at 08:25:59
Until I see what we do in free agency, I’ll stay with my first pics, FS, DE, then C/G. I think we’d be lucky to get Moore, and from what I’ve read so far, the DE is pretty deep this year. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Bush, wanting to attack, raised the level at LB one way or another.
Jan 15, 2009 at 11:03:47
I love Rey as well but I doubt he makes it to 15. If he does, and he’s the highest rated Defensive Player on the board, then you absolutely take him. We have to many needs not to draft the highest rated player vs. drafting for position.
I agree with Kubiak,you just stick your best three guys out there. Demeco and Rey could most likely switch positions at any time. That could really open up the defense to some innovative blitz packages if Bush is capable of doing so.
I think we drafte for a position of need last year with Brown and it was a bit of a stretch. It’s worked out so far, but I think on Defense we just need more Talent and better athletes out there at every position. I would just like to see us take the best available regardless of position. If that was Rey, it would be awesome.
Jan 15, 2009 at 12:07:27
Sorry that this comment is off topic, but has Taylor Mays officially declared that he’s coming back for another season? I remember reading somewhere that his decision was going to be based in part on Sanchez’s decision, and Sanchez just declared himself eligible. Would Taylor Mays really want to go back to school with a young, inexperienced quarterback for one more year?
Jan 15, 2009 at 14:19:31
1. I would be fine with taking Rey and moving DeMeco IF and ONLY IF Bush states that he’s using a Jim Johnson style D where the OLBs are interchangeable and there really isn’t a SLB/WLB difference. Because, as someone above said, DeMeco would be too small at SLB and would take more of a beating on running plays.
2. Orakpo, but I’d prefer him at SLB, or Michael Johnson. See today’s discussion for why I am still leaning DE over safety. Also, other than the greats like Reed and Polamalu, don’t you think there’s a reason why not many safeties get taken in the first round? I certainly would not want to take a flier on a guy like Moore who didn’t even look impressive against Northwestern.
3. Johnson mainly.
Jan 15, 2009 at 14:50:27
To point 1. If Rey were there, how big is he? Could he play SLB, looks to have size/strength. Point 2, I think Raji is the best fit who can realistically fall to us. I think a space eater would immediately improve our defense up 10 spots. Heard he was quick too for a big man. I prayed last year that Okam would have filled the role, but I didn’t see a lot of heart on that front. Point 3, maybe God can speak to Peppers and he will come hear as a FA. Don’t have a legitimate opinion on the DE prospects yet. Orakpo maybe, but is he going to be big enough in the NFL?
Jan 15, 2009 at 20:06:28
@ do: I think Orakpo would be a monster at SLB (or 3-4 OLB), but I think he’s going to be underwhelming at DE. That’s just me, though.
Jan 15, 2009 at 21:02:17
Re: “taking plays off” – have you EVER heard of a NT prospect who wasn’t accused of this? Seriously… the guys are, by requirement, fat-a*ses. This is a fast-paced game we’re talking about, and even if they were to get down to a weight where they wouldn’t be winded, then we’d be talking about how they are “undersized and are easily pushed around”.
Now, that being said, DT has always seemed to me like a poorly scouted position. We’ll find out as the off-season (for us) progresses. Perhaps my feelings about how DT is scouted is based on Amobi Okoye/Tommie Harris types and not Haloti Ngata/Casey Hampton types.
On defensive ends, if a guy isn’t 270, I’m writing him off. Some would argue that 255 is a good starting point, but those guys get blown off the run too easily by 320 lbs right tackles.
On moving DeMeco outside, it makes sense – he was an OLB in college. But MLB and OLB are different beasts; I’d be completely open to Rey, provided that we let DeMeco and him battle for BOTH positions, and not pretend as if one position is more important than the other.
What DeMeco offers at MLB over Rey Mauauauauauauauauaualuga is that DeMeco has seen 3 years more worth of tape on defenses, and he’s got to have a way bigger edge on Rey as far as reading Peyton Manning and the likes.
What are your thoughts on Aaron Curry? I haven’t seen him play, but I always see him listed as the top OLB prospect. I don’t know how much of that is groupthink, though. Or how about Laurinitis?
As you have probably detected, I’m a fan of a linebacking corps stocked to the gills with first and second rounders. I think linebacker is one of the best evaluated positions by scouts.
Jan 15, 2009 at 21:29:35
Sh*t, suppose I should have read the final third of your post.
The mock drafts will adjust big time at three major points: after everyone has declared and un-declared; after free agency opens; after the Combine. I probably wouldn’t fall in love with having a particular guy until after the Combine, because that will be when we have an idea of which teams need what kinds of players.
(I’m thinking of doing a mock with attention paid to salary cap issues, a team’s propensity to trade down/up [related to salary cap], and what holes free agency allowed them to fill. A lot of mocks seem to me to just have been winging it without regard to at least these three factors. But it seems like a lot of work to do since I will be focusing on my college classes and out-processing out of the military and finding a new job and a new place to live…)
That being said, I’m favoring Brian Orakpo IF he gains 10 lbs of muscle AND maintains his 4.73 speed, BJ Raji (I wish he was about 3 inches taller!) as my only DT preference in the first round (everyone else is an under tackle), Aaron Curry, Malcolm Jenkins (doubtful he falls this far), Brian Cushing IF he shaves .1 second off of his 40-yard time AND we trade down, Vontae Davis maybe with a trade down.
The second round is where I start to get a chubby. There’s options galore there: Paul Kruger DE Utah, Jr, 265 lbs with OLB 4.68 speed; Clint Sintim OLB Virginia (need to see more video of him); Vontae Davis (may fall this far); Sean Smith CB Utah (nfldraftscout.com has him at 4.5 which is “slow” for a CB, maybe as a FS?); Patrick Chung SS Oregon.
Not to diss my colleague over at DGDB&D – I think the discussion we’re having over there about secondary versus linemen is very valuable – I think we’re probably splitting hairs if we’re arguing over safety versus DT at #15 if the best player available happens to be a safety. Now, let me make it clear that I do not think that will be the case this year! But I look back on some drafts and wonder how the h*ll some teams passed on certain guys.
Looking back at 2006, can anyone tell me HOW in the h*ll Mike Nolan, builder of a 3-4 defense in San Fran and a defensive coordinator FROM BALTIMORE himself, passed on Haloti Ngata at #6 overall for Vernon Davis?! Sometimes teams just over-think this draft thing and can’t see the forest for the trees. The 49ers needed a 3-4 DT and they had one we’re going to be talking about for the next 10 years sitting there, and they took Vernon f*ckin’ Davis.
If you need defensive players at a position, and the best defensive player available plays one of those positions, THEN TAKE HIM.
Again, let me state that I don’t think, at this moment, that William Moore is that player for us, and therefore I don’t think safety is a position we need to be focusing on. But things will shake down a little better in the upcoming months.
Jan 15, 2009 at 22:02:24
Oh and of course the playoffs will affect the draft order, which will affect the mocks! But not in any meaningful manner to us Texans fans…
Jan 15, 2009 at 22:11:14
To be fair, even if you had read my entire post – my opinions aren’t fully formed on anyone.
Last year, I really was high on James Laurinaitis, and I thought he made a mistake going back to school… but this year, he didn’t seem to continue that improvement you see from elite players at his position in their last year of college.
I think Rey is a sure thing, can’t miss talent. I think he’s primed to kick ass immediately like DeMeco and Patrick Willis. I wouldn’t be as gung ho to draft an LB and possibly move DeMeco unless the guy we landed was Rey.
Obviously, the Combine could sway me. I don’t know.
But man – is there a position on defense that more positively impacts the overall defense than a dominant DT? I look at the absolute HAVOC that guys like Haynesworth, Hampton, and especially Ngata wreak, and it makes me salivate.
I realize those teams have other great players on defense as well – but when you consider that our one of our two already-GREAT players we have on defense is Mario Williams – it really makes it almost a no-brainer to me that if Smithiak thinks the highest-rated DT on the board at 15 can be a game-changer – you HAVE TO TAKE HIM.
I do love Curry, but he’ll be gone. The only LB I would jump on at 15 is Rey, pending Combine insanity… and really – Combine insanity has never gotten me too excited with the exception of DRC and Mario.
Also, for the record – I’m totally with Matt about Orakpo. I’m not at all sold on him as a DE… and I’m totally with you about the weight issues on DEs. Doesn’t Everette Brown weigh in at barely over 250? He’s a guy who looks incredibly exciting… but I wonder how well he can translate to the NFL game. He seems like nothing more than a speed-rusher to me. Yet – intriguing.
Michael Johnson is the guy that I really want to learn a lot about.
Jan 15, 2009 at 22:22:27
Michael Johnson just seems like a tall guy to me. He’s 6’7″, so you HAVE to stick him at DE in college, you know? But he’s “only” 270, and apparently he’s already one of those “size” guys (from my reading so far) where you get caught up in the numbers with him and forget to look at him play and realize that a 6’7″ guy at 270 isn’t the same as Mario Williams or Julius Peppers. But I don’t look at tape all day, so who am I to say? As odd as it sounds, I’d rather he be 6’5″ and 270.
I’ve seen mock drafts with Mauauauauauauaualuga (this is how I will spell his name from here on out) at #6, ahead of Curry. I wonder if that is some sort of “small school” effect (even though WF is a Div 1 school).
Everette Brown is 255 or so; he’s got 3-4 OLB all over him. Any mock draft that has him as a 4-3 DE I dismiss right off the bat. There’s no way that guy plays in a 4-3 as a DE in the NFL.
This conversation and the one over at (mandatory plug) http://www.atexansblog.com are really making me look into BJ Raji…
Jan 15, 2009 at 22:28:05
Well I like Orakpo but as a DE,don’t know how well he would make the transition to SLB in a 4-3 run heavy scheme, but I DO NOT want Michael Johnson. I am a LSU fan and when we played GT I figured he would be a force and he may be a factor. Early on I thought I was right as he made a sack and a nice tfl but that was it, he was done affecting the game at all against a converted DT who had struggled all year. HE committed a couple of penalties for late hits LATE in the game, he visibly gave up on plays and gave no effort of the play was away from him. SO me I want no part of him, I know Orakpo will go hard all the time and will give his all no matter what, so I think a guy like that will be a boost ot this D.
Jan 15, 2009 at 22:39:00
@Soc
Forgot to address the “takes plays off” thing with Raji. I don’t see that often when it comes to DTs, but your point is well taken. Like I said somewhere at some point – Mario was accused of the same thing, and he’s Mario.
My bigger concern with Raji is that he’s also had his commitment to football questioned… which is the same song and dance we got with Okam. Obviously, it just takes ONE guy to say that, and it suddenly spreads and becomes bigger than it is… I really trust Smithiak when it comes to the draft, so I think they’ll be able to separate the draft-speak from the real thing.
If Raji was 3 inches taller, like you hoped – he would have almost the exact same measurables as Haloti Ngata. (sniffle)
Jan 16, 2009 at 00:05:13
The fruit doesn’t fall to far from the tree, baby Gibbs looks to be our DB coach:
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/afcsouth/0-7-415/Gibbs-is-in-as-Texans-DB-coach.html?post=true
Jan 16, 2009 at 02:04:44
I watched Raji in a couple of games, and him and Ron Brace (another 330lb DT) playing in the middle was causing absolute mayhem.
The main problem chasing Raji was that he was deemed academically ineligible for the 2007 season, so people claimed he didn’t care about football.
However, look at his 2008 season (42 tackles, 14 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 5 bat downs, 3 hurries) and tell me he didn’t work his ass off in the 2007 season to get primed and ready for 2008. My guess is he got too into football and forgot he was doing the whole, you know, college thing, and paid the price.
He worked his butt off, lost 15 lbs, and came back ready to dominate in ’08. I’d take him over Johnson in an absolute heart beat. Id even take Peria Jerry over Johnson if we could get him.
Jan 18, 2009 at 21:47:49
1) Maualuga is a possibility, but I like DT BJ Raji or DE/OLB Everette Brown over him if all 3 are available at 15.
2) without seeing what free agency yields, I would like to see us trade down to 20-25 pick up a low 2nd or mid 3rd. Pick Peria Jerry, DT Mississippi
3) Everette Brown yes, Brain Orakpo BIG yes, but no way he falls to 15.
Feb 9, 2009 at 18:18:48
I would love to draft Rey if he were there at 15 but I’d rather look at putting Rey at SLB than moving Demeco.