To this point in the season, I have avoided this topic. Now that we are a quarter into the season, I’m putting it out there.
*Deep breath*
Never mind Arian Foster’s huge workload – right now he doesn’t look like the same player to me. Before you freak out, get with the “spirit” of this blog entry. I’m simply stating what I see right now. I’m not saying he is a bum, or that he isn’t a great running back, or that Ben Tate should be the starter (my GOD, dummies who say that need a concussion test). I’m just saying – he does not look the same to me right NOW.
The offensive line does have some responsibility in this, of course. When you first rework the entire right side of the line, and on top of that then begin a rotation at both right guard and right tackle – yes, it’s going to cause issues.
But it’s not all on the line. The most obvious difference that I’ve noticed this year is that Arian is often getting tackled by the first guy that touches him. That almost NEVER happened in the last two years. Having watched each game this season at least twice, I can say with confidence that it is happening more in 2012. In addition to that, I’ve noticed a few times where Arian hasn’t broken arm tackles the way he typically does. That’s not like him at all.
Arian still has the superior vision, and he’s still able to turn a no-gain into a three-yard gain. The Texans haven’t been as good in short yardage, but that obviously IS almost entirely on the offensive line.
Questions about Foster’s workload are also starting to surface. You have probably heard by now that he is on pace to have the second-most carries in single-season NFL history. Gary Kubiak was asked about this in his Monday press conference. Kubiak’s response: “He can handle it, I know that… he looks fine to me… I’m not too concerned at this point.”
Historically, RBs who have huge workloads around what Arian is on target for aren’t exactly guys who stick around and play at a high level for a long time. Could Foster be different? Sure he could, but if you just invested a ton of money in a player for the long haul, AND you have a backup who could start for several teams in the NFL – what’s the point in running him into the ground? Partially, the answer is – as much as people still don’t see it – Foster is still significantly better than Tate right now. His vision, his decisions, his pass-catching, his blocking, etc. He’s just better. But with a back behind him as excellent as Tate can be, I don’t see the hurt in giving Tate all of the garbage time carries, and more of the carries that matter during the course of the game. I’m not asking for a 1A and 1B situation here, but more like say, a three to one split.
Through four games, Tate is getting about 21% of Houston’s rush attempts. That number of course is skewed by the one anomaly, the game in Jacksonville where Tate handled 12 of the 28 attempts. So roughly, for every carry Foster gets, Tate gets four. That simply baffles me. I don’t know how else to put it. I suppose the win over the Titans could have something to do with Tate’s toe injury, or his fumble against the Broncos… but Tate wasn’t even getting garbage time carries against the Dolphins in game one.
So again, I don’t think I’m overreacting or throwing anything crazy out there. You won’t find a bigger Arian Foster fan than me. I’m all about the guy… but I also call it like I see it, and right now I’m seeing a guy who is still excellent and very effective – but not quite yet the guy we are used to seeing. I’m hoping the better the blocking gets, and the more the season wears on – we see the “old Arian” who rips off big plays (with the help of a great offensive line) and makes single-tacklers look silly.
Oct 1, 2012 at 21:19:52
Kubiak’s response makes me want to punch him. They are just asking for 1)an injury 2)dead legs later this season.
Being a Texans fan since 2002 I tend to be pessimistic, but this is a legit concern.
Oct 2, 2012 at 18:45:57
You know I had sorta noticed some omissions as well, but I did not put it together as well as you did.Hmm-mmm!I will pay more attention next time.
Oct 3, 2012 at 09:46:27
You’re right, he doesn’t look like the same back. He seems a bit less decisive all-around and he does seem to be going down more easily than he did last year.
I don’t know that I recalled thinking this against Miami, but I do seem to recall him sitting out some early practices this year due to illness then thinking that following game (Jags?) that he just looked a little lethargic. Even since then though, something just seems a bit off.
I’m sure to some degree that blocking is making his reads harder/slower to make. Like you though, I’m concerned that there’s an element related to Foster that’s gunking up the running game a bit too.
Oct 3, 2012 at 10:33:28
I think the lack of big plays in the running game is a big factor in all of this. Arian’s not breaking out big runs to the end zone. Thus, he’s getting hit more, his average per carry is down, and he has to handle more carries. And this probably results from being tackled by the first guy more frequently…
Oct 4, 2012 at 16:16:12
He is still one of the BEST backs in the leauge playing in a system that has produced good careers for backs much less talented. He’ll be fine.
Oct 7, 2012 at 05:30:56
I think you do what you have to win. Winning in the long haul means keeping people fresh, but you also have to take into consideration worth of product. You brought it up that in the Jacksonville game Tate was getting a fair amount of the snaps. This would seem, through two games at least, that Kubiak and company were employing an A/B switch to keep everyone fresh through the year.
Unfortunately plans only work in any fight until the first punch is thrown, at that point you have to think on your feet. Tate’s toe injury and the fumble have to come into consideration. I know that I would be reluctant to give a player a lot of snaps if he almost cost me a game.
All points you already articulated well this is just my input.