[EDITOR'S NOTE] If you’re looking for a differing opinion on Nnamdi Asomugha, here you go. Kyle’s back from work-induced hiatus to share some thoughts on the Texans – specifically this time on free agents and Nnamdi. Also note that this was initially a comment on this entry, so it’s not really framed as a blog entry – but he put some thought into this so I wanted to bump it to the main page. I think the idea of not wanting Nnamdi is insane, but I’ve always said I don’t have to agree with a guest entry to post it. Thanks go out to Kyle for taking the time. Carry on, Kyle:
Frankly, I don’t want Nnamdi.
He’ll cost too much because the media has crowned him the LeBron James of cornerbacks (I choose him because A: Nnamdi has 0 rings, B: they both have been accused of playing on teams that are otherwise talentless, and C: ESPN has written before that LeBron James would have been an elite cornerback had he chosen the oblong ball). And, empirical data does NOT back up said media infatuation. Football Outsiders’ analysis shows that the only thing impressive about Nnamdi’s performance last year (A CONTRACT YEAR MIND YOU WHERE EVERYONE, I MEAN EVERYONE, OUTPERFORMS THEMSELVES FOR MONEY) was that he was not targeted enough times to register on the chart. (To compare, neither was Asante Samuel, and, had Samuel been allowed to chart, he would have been their best CB of the year, whereas Nnamdi’s “Success Rate” metric tied with the #10 guy). As for ProfootballFocus, he is implicitly ranked 4th among corners in their 2010 Top 101. Impressive, but not at the oh-my-god level he has been touted.
I can guarantee you that the Tier 2 (all the other #1 CBs besides The Great Nnamdi, such as Rogers, Joseph, or Taylor) we eventually sign will be a huge upgrade at a spot that has not had a worthy player since pre-injury Dunta, and that players contract PLUS the contract of our next-biggest signing COMBINED will be cheaper than the ridiculous paycheck that Nnamdi will claim.
To further my point (and to see if I can start a “How I Met Your Mother” allusion trend here at HDH), I came up with the following chart to give us another reason why we should be looking at a more cost-effective cure for “$#!+ty Cornerback Syndrome”:
It is assumed that Nnamdi will be the highest-paid relocating free agent in 2011. How has that worked out in the past five years?
(NOTE: As anyone who has ever tried to research the immediate past has found, it is hard to get definitive data, so if my listing as the most expensive free agent each year is wrong, if you correct me, I will gladly reexamine that year(s)).
2006: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans
Change: +7 (3-13 to 10-6), lost NFC Title Game
2007: Nate Clements, CB, San Francisco
Change: -2 (7-9 to 5-11), missed playoffs
2008: Asante Samuel, CB, Philadelphia
Change: +1.5 (8-8 to 9-6-1), lost NFC Title Game
2009: Albert “Hundred Mil” Haynesworth, DT, Washington
Change: -4 (8-8 to 4-12), missed playoffs
2010: Julius Peppers, DE, Chicago
Change: +4 (7-9 to 11-5), lost NFC Title Game
Analysis: Well, this may seem like the data doesn’t further my point at all, but stay with me here. First off, The Brees signing appears somewhat anomalous so I am kind of distancing myself from it, not because the move appears so successful but because, frankly, the other four maintain a smaller shot group of both effectiveness as well as in the team that made the signing.
As for the other four, what do we have? Two teams with a recent history of success turning that signing into a Silver Medal at the Conference Title Game, and two teams with a recent history of non-success using the move to continue said streak.
Which team do you REALLY think we are like, people? Chicago and Philly, two teams that had recent Super Bowl appearances (though losses) on their resumes at the time of signing, or Washington and San Francisco, whose had struggled to put winning teams on the field.
I personally fear that if we signed Nnamdi, we would be more likely to get a Clements or Haynesworth than a Samuel or Peppers.
Something else to consider for the none of you still reading:
What is it that everyone loves about Nnamdi? No one throws to him. He locks down his side of the field? Well, in this day and age, the QB will pass to SOMEONE, meaning the other guy has to get the bulk of the attack.
Who’s the projected #2 corner? Oh right. Kareem Jackson. So, you’re telling me that the $$ that we used to sign Nnamdi just means that Kareem will lead the NFL in targets.
Does that sound like a formula for a team that makes it to the AFC Title game, or a team that has a losing record?
P.S. If you agree, but are pushing for the signing as a way to sabotage Kubiak, feel free to come forward. You have asylum on this blog. I’m sure of it.
May 15, 2011 at 23:43:06
Good point about putting Kareem Jackson in a bad spot again. I think we should go for a proven safety like Weddle and a tier two corner like Ike Taylor. What do yall think?
May 16, 2011 at 00:21:51
The best of the 2nd tier corners is Johnathan Joseph, I’d go after him (although I’d admittedly throw a blank check at Asomugha if I were in McNair’s shoes). I agree about going after a veteran safety too, and Eric Weddle would be perfect.
May 16, 2011 at 10:02:41
I agree that he will cost some change. Fact of the matter is he is one of the best in the league at his position. in Division where there is peyton manning u need a corner who can take Wayne or Dallas Clark out of the game. Your logic makes absolutely zero sense about hakeem getting picked on more as reason against signing namdi.first of all, whoever we sign that will be the case. Teams are going to pick on kareem until he proves he can run without a piano on his back.2nd,If anything it will help kareem because we do not have to give namdi safety help. Kareem will have an opportunity ti earn the spot. This move would ve similar ti the woods,move that the packers did not too long ago and that has worked out pretty well for them. I dont think he will be clements because he is a lot better than clement. If there is no cap we can sign him and front load the contract up to facilitate signing Mario. The only reason for not signing namdi is we might lose out on the other guys and we will be in the same position as last years team
May 16, 2011 at 13:56:39
While I agree that having a shutdown corner would put Kareem in the thick of the action, we also have to consider that a shutdown corner would mean no safety help is necessary on that side. We could however give Kareem safety help which is what he desperately needs. He got beat deep a lot, which led him to line up further off the line, which led to a lot of short and intermediate throws against him. I think he’ll be a markedly better corner though if we can give him the confidence to play short/intermediate by providing him over-the-top safety help should someone go deep on him.
May 16, 2011 at 14:47:03
I love you guys, I really do, but you missed the point, and I’ll take the blame for not stating it more clearly:
Yes, Asomugha is an awesome cornerback, but the distance between him and who we sign will be greater financially than it will be in terms of talent.
Jonathan Joseph (who I’m a touch concerned about since his entire career he’s had Leon Hall on the other side), Carlos Rogers (my favorite of the Tier 2′s, though he’s a prototypical “WR with no hands = good CB” model), or any of the Tier 2 guys will still fill the upgrade, and we need more than just Nnamdi.
The proof is in your responses. Everyone is in agreement that Nnamdi alone is not good enough. We need a safety, a corner, and I’m sure we’d all feel better if we got a starter-grade ILB and a better backup plan for Earl Mitchell than Shaun Cody (Frank Okam? Just kidding)
Whomever buys Nnamdi will all but certainly not spend any more significant money on free agency. I’ve already listed before that the group of Rogers, Kevin Burnett/Stephen Cooper (both really good SD ILB’s, at least one of which will be released during free agency), and Gerald Sensabaugh (Eric Weddle is a lock to be re-signed as he is arguably the best FS in the league now that Reed’s health is hurting him; I think we;re better off courting a strong Wade alum who makes up for not being one of the elite by instantly knowing the system), and a no-name DT (I’ll let Wade pick out Earl’s backup) will be a reasonable wishlist that significantly improves the 4 mentioned weak areas of our depth chart. (For the record, I also think WR2 is a weak spot, but to ask Kubiak to give up on Jacoby AND K-Dubz as legit compliments to AJ is asking too much).
Oh yeah, and, for what it’s worth, if we WERE going to blow our money on one guy and hope for the best…
…Haloti Ngata. You know the planet theory? Well, how about this one, “There are only so many 350-pounders who are athletic enough to play linebacker”. Yes, I know he’s a nose, but anyone who has taken the time to watch him defend, especially standing up in space as a play is developing, and doesn’t have some level of man-crush on him, doesn’t love the game of football. Okay, that’s overselling it, but you get the point.
May 16, 2011 at 20:55:19
Fact is the Texans have gone in that direction many times. The “don’t overspend on one great player but use the money on multiple avg.-to-good players.” Been there too many times. Many we need something to save. Us from ourselves and this (Nnamdi) could be it. Atleast we know what we are getting (a damn great CB for some time now).
BTW…QBs torched the whole secondary last year, not just kareem. And they did it at will not forcing it. Maybe if we lock up one side of the field (or one WR, however u want to look at it), with Wade Phillips 3-4 and pass rushers…teams are forced to get rid of it quicker. Safety help on Kareem side too. I’m not opposed.
May 16, 2011 at 21:26:50
Good discussion… Nnamdi is good but not necessary at that price come on with our offense we dint need great but adequate Sensabaugh at SS and one the 2nd tier corners will work. Fact is it would be nice to spend some of the left over money on the other guys we also need like NT, a true #2 receiver, and a ILB who has experience in a 3-4. Since, Ryans won’t be 100% at the start and Cushing was underwellming his sophomore year ILB is a big question with no depth. Getting Nnamdi is like what the redskins do over spend and leave the other positions with sub par players.
May 17, 2011 at 00:58:27
@JD
My concern at the ILB position is not so much worry about Ryans’ injury and Cushing’s poor performance at MLB (which is different than ILB).
It’s their size. A 4-3 MLB (and OLB for that matter) are a good 20-ish pounds heavier than your standard 3-4 ILB. Cushing is about the exact size of the guy that was Wade’s SOLB in Dallas (though his name escapes me right now). And “The Steve Slaton Theory” indicates that “When a football player drops or gains significant weight, he is essentially a new player, for better or for worse”.
If nothing else, I’d love to get a veteran ILB who can help player-coach our two guys into how to bring their intensity and on-field leadership and refine it towards their new position.
That’s why I support us basically standing outside the front office at San Diego and waiting to see who slips between Eric Weddle (not likely; he’s one of the top FA’s available and arguably the best FS in the NFL right now), and their two starting ILB’s, Burnett and Cooper. Cooper is older at 32 but that might actually work out better because I think that might put him on the team when Wade coached up the defense which would help, plus, since best-case-scenario he’s high-end rotational depth, we can probably offer him a solid long-term contract because we can keep him fresh by only using him as part of a rotation.
Oh yeah, and I appreciate that you accept Sensabaugh even those he’s a Cowboy. People can change, you know.
May 17, 2011 at 08:58:57
Good Post. I believe Wade could help Jackson on the other side if he had Aso, but I agree that I’d prefer Joseph AND Weddle to simply Aso. My fear is that we’ll target even lower than those two and end up even lower than that. It will do us no good to acquire players that aren’t significantly better than whet we currently have.
May 17, 2011 at 09:25:11
I don’t know if weddle will be resigned by san Diego. They did just sign bob sanders and they have a lot of free agents to sign. I love ngata but I don’t see a situation where he would leave Baltimore for us. He is in a top five defense right now and he is on the brink of a superbowl. Namdi has been in Oakland his whole career and there is alot better chance we get him. We might away well get peyton manning Kyle. The tier 2 guys all have issues. Your boy Rogers also had hall on the other side who was a probowler and Washington also had a bad pass defense. The hurricane had the Pittsburgh front 7 in front of him
May 17, 2011 at 09:42:47
Which we don’t have in Houston. He might be like their other corner mcfadden when he went to the cardinals after the superbowl. We do need inside linebacker. I am worried about demecos injury and his impact. We need a guy that knows what wade wants and I like the cooper selection. I don’t understand how it is set in stone that we will not sign another free agent if we sign namdi. Chicago staff, coaching and front office, were in the same situation that our front office is in. They signed Julius peppers, Chester Taylor, and the tightend.we can sign namdi and fill some of our other needs. It is not like our owner ie broke, I think he will open up his wallet this year. If it is not namdi I would like Joseph but the only way we get Joseph is if it is not last years rules.as with the nose tackle a more realistic option is kris Jenkins or aubrayo Franklin. I have a better chance of hooking up with Megan fox then we do of signing ngata. Sorry this is in two posts. I responded with my phone and I accidentally hit the publish button.
May 17, 2011 at 12:43:20
As long as we’re dreaming, imagine what we could do with Ngata, Aso, and Weddle. I’d be happy if we got solid vets at Cr, S, ILB, and NT. I hope we get a few with 34 experience.
May 19, 2011 at 07:47:27
Just throwing this out there as part of the Carlos Rogers to Houston PAC,
There’s a new article floating around today where Rogers completely ripped the Redskins organization and declared, quote, “I don’t think I’ve been as appreciated as I should be in that organization, not by everybody. I’ve always been the No. 2 corner, but I’m the one they put on a guy they want to shut down.”
Good news: Dude is motivated to be a number 1.
Bad news: I think if the Eagles or Cowboys offer the same contract as us, he’ll go that route just to join in a two-a-year Redskins beatdown (paraphrasing another quote)
So, here’s hoping we do it like Chris Bosh (only successful this time) and say “Hey Rogers, you are everyone else’s backup plan, but you’re OUR NUMBER ONE!!!”. Reference some horrible fact about Kyle Shanahan (or his Dad) that only Kubiak would know to further discredit the Redskin regime, and we’re in!
P.S. Everyone wants Nnamdi, and we’re supposed to willingly throw a blank check at him.
If we are so willing to spend McNair’s money (which is our right as Texans fans), why is no one asking for Rogers AND Joseph?!?
May 20, 2011 at 13:41:42
Im in the minority FOR SURE, but give me eric weddle over nhamdi
May 21, 2011 at 05:38:03
@AllenOU
I’m with you, for sure. The scuttlebuzz I am hearing is that nearly everyone BUT Weddle is expendable on the Chargers roster (LB’s Burnett and Cooper and RB Sproles top the list). However, free agency causes crazy stuff to happen and if Weddle hears a little birdy say that better $$$ is had elsewhere, it’s not like San Diego is a place where someone will take less money to play. (Sorry Charger fans, but with The Mavericks sweeping the Lakers, the Bolts are officially the Chokiest team in sports, and Oakland and KC are teams on the rise, not even counting the fact that Jesus now officially roots for the Broncos).
That said, and this is me trying to channel my inner Bob McNair, but, from the business side, Weddle doesn’t make sense. Sure, it’s a solid investment for the best safety without health problems or a Head and Shoulders contract, but substantially less casual fans know of Weddle than of Scrabble. I hate to say it but, if Bobby Mac is in it to make a big splash to boost fan interest and jersey sales, his only choice is Scrabble, so, if he opts against Okoye’s partner in African charity work, don’t expect us to sign any of the other “max contract” free agents.
Now, if you will excuse me, I have to go cry because I just argued that Ngata to the Moo Cows is an impossible transaction.
May 21, 2011 at 12:24:49
Wow, from what I’ve read it seems like the NFL will be just like baseball in your minds. We all forget there will be even after this lockout ends a SALARY CAP. Asomugha would be nice but Houston would have to make him one of the highest paid defensive players in the NFL. Are we forgetting that Mario is in a contract year?? Mario will want to be if not the highest among the highest paid and I’m not even considering if he has a breakout year like some are projecting. Let’s see, we’re making Andre the highest paid WR, Demeco has a nice contact but it’s not cheap, Schaub’s contract isn’t due this year but soon he’s going to have to get paid if he continues success and if he takes Houston to a AFC Championship game or Super Bowl, Vonta Leach needs to be re-signed and he won’t be cheap either. These are guys that need to stay with Houston and everyone’s talking about Asomugha? So…Are we all in favor of letting Mario Williams walk and letting a huge part of our pass rush go? Because a corner can make up for Mario’s absence right? (NO!!!)
May 22, 2011 at 10:55:51
@Michael
There’s no guarantee that a salary cap will be put in place. I don’t recall who, but someone said that the salary cap was something that would be very difficult to reinstate after letting it slip.
Plus, while a salary FLOOR is a mandate because the whole players’ piece of the pie is being distributed as an algorithmic change to the salary floor numbers, keeping the salary CAP out benefits the NFLPA because it allows everyone to get market value and not be concerned with taking pay cuts to stay on a team (unless they just flat out don’t deserve the money anymore).
I could see the owners throwing the players a bone by keeping out the cap for the sake of doing a deal. Honestly, it doesn’t really affect parity because the teams that Yankee Up on free agency tend to still be mediocre and the teams that are perennial playoff-ers build (successfully, Rick Smith) through the draft, which is almost definitely going to get wage-scaled.