Oh yes, we have a long way to go until the NFL Draft. So much may or may not happen before then, considering the NFL labor situation.
But hey, this is what we do. It’s almost time for the Super Bowl, which means we are already deep into draft speculation in Houston *sniffle*.
Obviously, the NFL Combine and other factors can (and will) change things, but here are my very early thoughts on the positions the Texans may consider in the first round (in no particular order).
CB
I don’t see the Texans going CB in the first round for two straight years. The last thing this team needs is another rookie CB to be in the running to start, and a first-rounder would be just that. In my mind it’s a virtual certainty that the Texans will look to upgrade one of their starting corner positions in free agency whenever free agency actually occurs. That said, if one of the top-tier CBs (Patrick Peterson of LSU or Prince Amukamara of Nebraska) were to miraculously fall to #11, it would be a no-brainer… but “miraculous” isn’t hyperbolic enough to describe that scenario.
NT
We continue to go ’round and ’round about the type of NT Wade Phillips is going to want to anchor his 3-4 defense next year. In the past, he’s used the big, fat wide-bodied guys, and he’s used the smaller, quicker, gap-shooting guys. I tend to not believe that Phillips is as enamored with guys currently on the roster (Shaun Cody, Earl Mitchell, Amobi Okoye) as he says he is. If Wade thinks they can play the nose, fine – but hopefully it will be as depth… though we don’t yet know Earl Mitchell’s ceiling. With Wade’s instruction and Earl’s motor, who knows?
With where the Texans are picking, there aren’t going to be any guys available worth that draft slot (I don’t see the Combine changing that). Auburn’s Nick Fairley will be long gone (possibly first overall), and Alabama’s Marcell Dareus will probably be gone as well. Oregon State’s Stephen Paea and Corey Liuget of Illinois should be available, but at this point those both seem like reaches at #11. As Big Ron said so succinctly on Twitter, if you’re going to take a NT in the first round, he needs to be a game-changer. I agree, and as of now, I don’t see a game-changer available at NT at the 11 slot. I will be curious to track Paea’s stock, though.
OLB
As discussed previously, there seems to be a difference of opinion as to where Brian Cushing will play in the 3-4. I think he’s a better fit for the inside, whereas many others think he belongs on the outside. A lot of early draft speculation is swirling around Texas A&M speed-rusher Von Miller to go to Houston as an OLB, but I’m not really on that bus at this point. You can never have enough pass rushers, though. I’m just not convinced that Miller is going to excel at the next level, and I see him as a guy who relies solely on speed. There’s not a lot of technique there, and I don’t see him as the type who’s going to be good at shedding blocks, though he wouldn’t need to do that as much on the outside. Being a pure speed rusher can get you far in college. Not so much in the NFL. For every big-time successful NFL speed-rusher, there are a hundred guys who never pan out.
All that said, I think OLB is a strong possibility in the first round. As I said I’m not so hot on Miller, but I will be keeping my eye on the draft stock of UCLA’s Akeem Ayers. Not sure if he’ll be considered a reach at #11 by draft day, but as of this early stage – I’m a fan.
FS
Even though he’s still under contract, I’ll be shocked if the Texans bring Eugene Wilson back for another season. We Texan fans have been screaming for the Texans to get over their fear of using high picks on safeties for a long time now, and I don’t expect them to look at one in the first round. It’s not the way they do business, and more importantly, there isn’t a guy at that position worthy of a mid-first round pick, much less the #11 pick. Now, if UCLA’s Rahim Moore is there in the second round, I’d take a hard look at him.
My early pick
This is going to come down to value. While I’d love to have a NT or FS in the first round, there just isn’t a guy out there at those positions worth the pick. All signs seem to point to OLB in the first round at this point, and though it’s certainly not an original thought, it might be the smartest move if the Texans want to get the best player available at a need position.
Again, it’s ridiculously early, but I’d like to hear your thoughts on what position you’d like to see the Texans burn that first round pick on. I wouldn’t even be shocked to see WR suggested, especially when you bring up the question of value. Obviously this abhorrent defense needs a LOT of help, but would you want the Texans to reach for a need position if Alabama WR Julio Jones is sitting there at #11? I’d have to seriously consider that, as insane as it sounds right now.
Jan 25, 2011 at 07:18:57
Great summation Chris. I’m also really not high on Miller for pretty much the same reasons you stated. Of note, Kerrigan said that he won’t be standing up to work out as a LB at the Senior Bowl this week. I say that because I had been intrigued by him at 11, especially since he slimmed down to 255 for Mobile.
Jan 25, 2011 at 08:09:15
I am a big believer in taking immediate impact and guys who going to help. Julio Jones is the pick here, I have an article coming up soon about him and the reasons why. Adding Julio would add another dimension to the Texans offense. We can’t say this is a defensive pick, I feel the free agent wire will be where the Texans will plug some holes defensivley. I see Cushing on the oustside with Ryans and Sharpton in the middle.
Jan 25, 2011 at 08:34:34
do you think we could trade back or just say screw it and get 1 impact player this year.
Jan 25, 2011 at 08:44:03
If we do get JJ then our offense becomes ridiculous, think how Arizona or the Rams played when they had two top tier wide recievers and an accurate QB and a running back.
Jan 25, 2011 at 09:47:01
I bet we trade back this year.
Jan 25, 2011 at 09:52:28
For the last couple of years, I had the mistaken belief that we just had one or two major positions to improve. I think I’ve come to the realization that we’re a long ways off, so we might as well get BPA with a reasonable eye toward obvious need. At 11, I still think OLB will be the spot where they can get value + need for all the reasons you mentioned above.
It seems like it’s a yearly topic, but many of us would prefer a trade down scenario. I think at 11, that’s the perfect spot for a possible trade down. It’s beyond the high dollar picks, but you know there is going to be some really good players left that teams have fallen in love with. I would hope Smith could swing such a deal, but I usually get burned when I hope for anything regarding the Texans.
As much as we need defense, I would be happy if we got JJ or Mike Pouncey on offense. I think we could trade down a few spots and still get a good OLB, one of the second tier DTs, or Pouncey. I hope they consider a FS in the second.
Random thought – If even half of the Texans 2nd round picks had either panned out, hadn’t gotten injured or been traded away, this might be a completely different team. Joppru, Hollings, Babin, Buchanan, Barin, Tate, DeMeco, Schaub trade. I hope Barwin, Tate, and DeMeco come back healthy, but I already mentioned how that usually works out.
Jan 25, 2011 at 10:25:32
IF, and this is a big IF….
we can get some things figured out through FA, if there is FA, i think julio jones is a wonderful pick. then grad a SS or FS in round 2 and NT/OLB in round 3-4…
Jan 25, 2011 at 10:40:53
about the CB draft: Kareem was not a first round talent despite the Texans drafted him there (CB was a huge need for the team). And this point we can’t be even sure he is a capable No. 2 cornerback. On the other hand this year CB class is very strong and Brandon Harris looks like a stud to me. IMO he would be a top 10 pick in a less talanted year (like Haden last year). We could still sign a veteran No 1.CB (not Asomugha) and turn our weak point into strength.
Jan 25, 2011 at 14:05:41
missionary
Jan 25, 2011 at 15:01:04
Joking asisde, I fully expect that the first round pick will be an outside linebacker. In wade phillips last two stops his stud rush linebackers were first rounders. He drafted Merriman and Petey Ware was also a first rounder in the same draft as merriman. I do not think you can definitely trust barwin to come back from an injury and be on the level of those guys. Miller probably will be gone because I could see him having an awesome combine. So it will come down to Akeem the dream ayers, Ryan nancy Kerrigan, Aldon Smith, Adrian liz Clayborne, and Robert not Dr/glover Quin. quin is probably the highest rated out of all them on the mock drafts but he has baggage and Mcnair does not like baggage. Clayborne also has baggage. Although Kiper has us taking Aldon Smith, I think this is too early for him. So we are down to the dream and nancy. there is a good chance it could be ayers even though it might be a reach if we decide to fill the weakside outside line backer position, ayers is better at covering than Nancy and the weakside linebacker rushes the QB less and covers more. We could stick cushing out there at the weakside outside linebacker but we know that coverage is not his forte, so that is why cushing will be inside. In this situation that would mean barwin would be our strong side linebacker. I think he could excel at that position due to the fact that alot of people had him as a strong outside linebacker coming out of college. His injury worries me. So although I think there is a compelling reason to get the dream, I believe the pick will be Nancy because He is probably the most game ready of the ones I mentioned, he has no baggage, and he went to Purdue( rick smith likes Colorado state, denver,and purdue).He does not have the ceiling that Quin has but he will be more of a sure thing.
Jan 25, 2011 at 19:24:12
Can never have enough depth @ LB in a 3-4. I think that the Texans go OLB. If they don’t, I would really like to see them upgrade the O-line. Matt took way too many shots this year and “It always starts upfront” in football. Our tackles are set, but we need to upgrade the gaurd and esp. the center positions.
Jan 25, 2011 at 21:48:03
I think if he can get up to about 245, Miller is going to make an excellent rush linebacker. His primary weapon is his speed, but he also has great change of direction, uses great angles, and seems to be able to disengage from the blockers very well. He just seems to have the instincts of a natural pass rusher.
Jan 25, 2011 at 22:40:18
BPA defense. Need or perceived draft slot don’t matter if you end up with a pro bowl player 2-3 years down the line.
Jan 26, 2011 at 13:09:40
@DCTex,
You make a good point. No one thought Jackson would go in the first last year. Most of us thought we’d get either Wilson or McCourtney which were projected as first round talents. It does seem like the Texans go in hell bent on drafting a certain position, regardless of the talent available that year. As badly as we needed an OT in 2007 (I think), we should have rethought that plan when 7 others were taken that year. Even if they do draft another corner, I hope they get a quality FA vet to help these young guys develop.
Jan 26, 2011 at 13:58:00
Let me begin by saying what we already know: to project position at this point will be eventually proven moot, as the Texans FO is notoriously poor at masking what position they want. (2008 we all knew they wanted Duane Brown, and their trade down to right in front of San Diego should go down as a big PLUS on the column of Smith’s draft history; 2009 the question was WHICH SAM LB from USC; and last year it was WHICH Insta-Start CB)
But anyway…I think Cushing is an OLB. Based on the Dallas Cowboys depth chart, Wade’s preference is 260-pound OLB’s and 240-pound ILB’s. Cushing is 260, and let’s not forget that he excels as a disruptive backfield attacker and sucked as a MLB.
Right now, Cushing is our SOLB and Barwin is the WOLB, since Barwin is a better pass rusher and Cushing is better in coverage vs. TE’s.
The INSIDE linebacker spot is where we are reall deficient; the only guy I have faith could play 3-4 ILB is Sharpton. DeMeco is 10 pounds too heavy, and I don’t pretend to know enough about football to dismiss the speed and agility Ryans loses being 10 pounds over the “prototypical” weight for the position.
Also, I have heard intriguing reviews on Phil Taylor from Baylor. He’s a 330-pound nose tackle, but, from what I have heard, has been blowing it up so far. Wade’s versatility in coaching style means that Taylor could be in play as a nose tackle candidate. His size is indicative of a two-gap 0-tech, but, theoretically, his ability to collapse the interior line could make it very easy for Super Mario and Antonio Smith to pressure the QB from the 5-tech position.
All that said, in my most recent mock draft at draftdebacled.com (user name: qDubya, the mock and all of its updates will be called qMock), I had Houston trade down with New England for #17 and #60 and take Greg Jones out of Michigan State at WILB. I think ILB is the most dire need we have, I think that linebackers are the defensive position most likely to have an immediate impact (Houston has had two ROY’s, both from the linebacker position), and I think that yes, Houston is likely to trade down to fill as many holes as possible with people that “might” start as rookies or second-year players.
As for the trade itself, I think New England will use its hefty ammo and trade up for a stud (in this case Marcell Dareus), and it just felt natural for Houston to draft one spot before San Diego and draft a player they might want. (Also see under 2008 and 2009 drafts)
Jan 26, 2011 at 18:22:55
In regards to Von miller; his main criticism has been his pass rush ability (or lack their of). Can anyone remember what the verdicts were on DWare and Merriman when they were going into the draft?? Were they raw talent freaks like Miller, or did they actually have pass rushing ability/moves?
Jan 27, 2011 at 17:02:02
If you’ve been following Senior Bowl coverage, Von Miller has been the best player there bar none. No one can get to the QB as fast as him. Also, if you think he doesn’t have pass rush moves, you need to go watch him again. Mayock and everyone else certainly disagree.
Feb 2, 2011 at 15:24:07
Von Miller is going to be a big time player. Watch his Senior Bowl tape and see how he can track and tackle RB in space, cover TE & RB in space very well. They say he’s small but Dumervill is smaller than miller. When you lead the wholee Nations with Sacks, it says something about you!
Feb 3, 2011 at 08:46:59
Kyle,
I think the Dallas LB’s other than keith Brokings were parcells guys. Parcells prefers them big LB and not phillips.
Danny,
Actually Von Miller’s strenth is pass rushing ability. Have you seen Dwight Freeney? He relies on speed first than anything else.