[EDITOR'S NOTE] Kyle is back to drop his 2010 season preview on the universe. If you thought Kyle’s crack habit was bad leading up to the draft – wait until you read THIS. This guy is tweaking HARD. I’m kind of afraid for his life. Kyle – you have family that love you. It’s okay to admit you need help. Take it away:
The World’s best 2010 NFL Season Projector IN THE WORLD!!!
Every year, football experts put together predictions for the upcoming season, and, as any fan of TMQ knows, they always get them totally wrong. Why?
1. They pick the same teams every year, ignoring the parity that makes the NFL great.
2. They ignore football curses, even those that have been proven nearly 100% true.
3. They fail to use fantasy football as a research tactic.
By taking a superstitious approach to my projections, I provide a much different projection than what you will find elsewhere on the internet. Does that make mine right? I guess we’ll see.
AFC East
Buffalo’s out because they are just a terrible team. They are one of four teams that I predict will compete for the #1 overall pick in 2011.
As for the rest? They are all in the mix for the title, even though most people have discarded Miami as a threat. Not so fast. New York is about to get hit with THE HARD KNOCKS CURSE! The first two teams to appear on the HBO show failed to make the playoffs, and the third team, Cincinnati, has their own way of suffering through curses. Now, all the HKC does is escalate problems that go from little things to paralyzing afflictions. The two hot topics on the show are Mark Sanchez feeling the pressure, and Rex Ryan turning the Revis Island holdout into a gigantic media circus. When your best player and starting QB have issues, your team is in trouble.
New England is in the hunt, but they are getting old and, frankly, have been coasting off their Super Bowl wins and 18-1 season ever since the Matt Cassell phenomenon. This leaves Miami. Walterfootball.com did a piece on the effect of new receivers for their QB’s. In short, new receivers lead to a breakout season for the QB, and, if Henne has a borderline-Pro Bowl year, and Karlos Dansby plays up to his new contract, this is the team that will take the East.
WINNER – Miami
AFC North
Baltimore is the frontrunner in my book for Home Field, and will probably have the luxury of resting their starters, which is good, since the frailty of a large chunk of their core (Ray Lewis, Anquan Boldin, Ed Reed, Lardarius Webb, Derrick Mason, and Todd Heap are all important players who are either old or injury-prone).
Why will they lock up the North so fast? Because Cleveland is transitioning from a terrible season, Cincinnati is about to implode upon itself due to the large number of radioactive personalities on the team, and the Steelers had their season ruined by Big Ben and Santonio before it even began.
WINNER – Baltimore
AFC South
WINNER – Houston
Now that I have your attention, here’s why. Though our running game will still not break into the Top 20 in the NFL, it is passable, and there is no better QB-WR tandem in the NFL than Schaub and AJ. (For those who said Peyton and Reggie Wayne, head back to the end of the line). The defense is chock full of young leaders, at least one of which should step up and have a monster game each week.
The real reason Houston has not made the playoffs? Divisional strength. Didn’t they just go 9-7 with a 1-5 divisional record? Imagine if they went 4-2 in division?
Jacksonville is team #2 in my predicted fight for the #1 pick. (2-0) Tennessee will suffer from the Fantasy Football Phenomenon of “The RB with Too Many Carries Last Year”. Stats prove that after as many carries as CJ had last season, he’s due for a drop-off. If this team went 8-8 with a 2000-yard rusher, how do you think they’ll do when he only rushes for 1200? (3-1)
As for Indy…SUPER LOSER CURSE!!! Since 2000, The team that lost the Super Bowl almost always fails to accumulate a winning record and make the postseason the next year. Considering that, of the 3 exceptions, 2 only made it because they played in the NFC West, I’d say this is as good a reason as any to sell high on the Colts (4-2).
There you have it. The Texans can easily go 6-4 or 7-3 outside of the South, and are likely to go 4-2 in division. That smells like a winner to me. Now, since it bears repeating…
WINNER – Houston
AFC West
This is where it gets interesting. First of all, KC is team #3. Second of all, Denver WILL NOT succeed after losing Mike Nolan and Elvis Dumervil, their defensive mastermind and pass rush stud, respectively. So San Diego has a cakewalk right?
WRONG! Oakland will win this division. The only thing that has held back this perennially underrated team is the mad-hattery of Al Davis. If the draft is any indication, Al Davis is no longer in control of this franchise. Rolando McClain now looks like a beautiful decision since they secretly transitioned to the 3-4, and this team has replaced three daggers in their heart (Russel, McFadden, Heyward-Bey) in the starting lineup with three talented players (Campbell, Bush, Louis Murphy), they kept their two best defensive players (Seymour and Asomugha), and let’s not forget that they have arguably the best special teams in the NFL. San Diego always starts slow and tries to finish strong, banking on a Denver choke job, but Oakland won’t choke.
WINNER – Oakland
Playoff standings: #1 BAL, #2 MIA, #3 HOU, #4 OAK
Wildcard #5 – Cleveland
WHAT?!? Didn’t I just say the team was in transition? Well, that’s why they won’t come close to the 12-4ish Ravens. However, Jake Delhomme has looked sharp early in the preseason, the team has a GREAT offensive line and solid weapons, and their defense could be a lot worse.
Keep this in mind: The #1 rule that experts forget is the NFL Turnover Rate. Each year, about 6 teams make the playoffs that sat out the year before. IF you want any chance of predicting the future, you NEED to be willing to accept that a couple of teams will come OUT OF NOWHERE and make the playoffs.
Wildcard #6 – New England
With the Jets and Colts cursed, it was either the Patriots or the Chargers, and the Patriots have more talent.
Playoffs – New England @ Houston
Houston will be fired up for their first home playoff game ever, and the PAtriots will cash it in like they’ve been doing.
WINNER – Houston
Cleveland @ Oakland
The Black Hole is a tough place to play, but Cleveland has something Oakland doesn’t have: a playoff-experienced QB and UNBRIDLED RAGE!!! The town of Cleveland has been dumped on especially since LeBron left. This season, the Browns will turn this into Cleveland vs. the World and, like Michael Cera in Youth in Revolt, they will find an awkward way to turn rebellion into victory.
WINNER – Cleveland
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Three things:
1. Divisional match-ups in the playoffs are prone to upset because the visiting team isn’t intimidated by the home crowd and they REALLY know their opponent.
2. Teams that rest starters and have bye weeks have statistically struggled in their first playoff game.
3. Remember how I made a long list of important Ravens who are likely to be injured? You don’t think they’ll ALL be here in this game, do you?
WINNER – Cleveland
Houston @ Miami
To my knowledge, every time these teams play, Houston wins by single digits. As you can tell, I don’t argue with past history in football.
WINNER – Houston
Cleveland @ Houston
The nation will want Cleveland to win as a huge underdog story, but in this case, Houston is the better team by too much of a distance to overcome with passion and rage.
WINNER AND AFC REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SUPER BOWL – Houston
NFC East
With the Big Game headed to Cowboy Town, Dallas has all the pressure to succeed. Fortunately, they are one of the most talent-rich teams in the league, and, though this is the toughest division in the NFL, Dallas should be able to get to the playoffs on top. Getting there has never really been the problem.
WINNER – Dallas
NFC North
Chicago will stink, and Detroit will be significantly better, but this race is between Green Bay and the Minnesota Favres. Don’t buy the hype. This hurts to say, because I missed my fantasy draft and got stuck with Sidney Rice as my #1 WR, but Minnesota will not be special this year. They’ll be in play for the wildcard, but this is Green Bay’s year, at least in conference.
WINNER – Green Bay
NFC South
WINNER – Tampa Bay
No, I’m serious. Go Wikipedia the NFC South, and tell me I’m wrong. GO on. I’ll wait.
…
SEE?!? Every year since the realignment, the last place team from the year before made the playoffs, and, in all but one case, won the division outright.
As for New Orleans…MADDEN CURSE!!! Drew Brees will get hurt, and Mark Brunell will throw their season away.
NFC West
Arizona will stink this year. TRUST ME. This is good news for Houston fans who are tired of hearing that Larry Fitzgerald may be better than Andre Johnson, which is about as accurate as a blind archer.
St. Louis is team #4 competing for the top pick, and this is the 49ers year to crawl over the trash pile and take a 9-7 season to the playoffs.
“WINNER” – San Francisco
Playoff Standings – #1 Green Bay, #2 Dallas, #3 Tampa Bay, #4 San Francisco
Wildcard #5 – Atlanta
The Falcons have quietly amassed a VERY complete team that is MUCH better than the Wildcard spot that the Football Gods bestowed upon it.
Wildcard #6 – Washington
Philadelphia used to send a bunch of 8-8ish teams to the playoffs because Donovan McNabb gutted out a win or two on his own. Now, he is doing it AGAINST Philly.
PLAYOFFS – Washington @ Tampa Bay
Okay, okay. The NFC SOUTH “CURSE” only gets them to the playoffs. It won’t help them here.
WINNER – Washington
Atlanta @ San Francisco
I don’t think Alex Smith is going to be able to help the 49ers get far in the playoffs. David Carr on the other hand…
WINNER – Atlanta
Washington @ Green Bay
This game will be a close one, but I don’t trust the Redskins’s pack of aging running backs against Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji, and I don’t trust their decent secondary against Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley.
WINNER – Green Bay
Atlanta @ Dallas
This is where Dallas’s completeness comes into play. The Falcons’ interior line will have no answer for Jay Ratliff, and the only hole on the Cowboys’s roster, left tackle Doug Free, will not face enough of a pass rush threat to stop Tony Romo from torching Dunta Robinson.
That said, don’t count out Matty Ice, and past history tells me that, even though the thought of a Super Bowl of Houston @ Dallas is too awesome for words, you DO NOT bet on the Cowboys to make it far in the playoffs while Wade PHillips and Tony Romo are playing.
WINNER – Atlanta
Atlanta @ Green Bay
This comes down to Greg Jennings vs. Dunta and Roddy White vs. Charles Woodson.
WINNER AND NFC REPRESENTATIVE TO THE SUPER BOWL – Green Bay
SUPER BOWL – Houston vs. Green Bay
This may feel like a home game just a few hours from H-town, but the Pack would bring their army of fans, so it wouldn’t be a noticeable majority.
As far as the game, the Houston offensive line struggles against the 3-4, and Charles Woodson should be able to keep AJ under 100 yards. I don’t think our defense will let us get blown out, but this one is not a game I think we can win. Sorry guys.
Green Bay 20, Houston 13 (Not as close as the scoreboard indicates)
So there you have it. After factoring in:
-Playoff Turnover Rate
-Madden Curse
-Super Loser Curse
-NFC South Turnaround
-Hard Knocks Curse
-Fantasy Football Rule of Too Many RB Carries
-Fantasy Football Rule of New Receivers
-Past History
-and, when all else failed, simple logic
This is what you get. You get a season where Houston turns their first ever playoff appearance into a Super Bowl run (after defeating CLEVELAND), and the Dallas Cowboys choking away the first-ever hometown Super Bowl.
MVP: Aaron Rodgers – Stats will be through the roof plus Home Field = MVP
OPoY: Andre Johnson – Will completely outshine all other “peers”
DPoY: Karlos Dansby – Huge stats and a huge part of Miami’s Divisional Conquest
ORoY: C.J. Spiller – With no pass game and two other backs hurt, Spiller will probably amass a TON of meaningless yardage.
DRoY: Rolando McClain – Entering a perfect situation, and will take advantage
Coach of the Year: Tom Cable – The Browns’ turnaround may be more exciting, but that was the GM not the coach. Plus, Oakland won their division.
Thanks for making it through the projections.