As expected, Gary Kubiak is getting a contract extension.
Despite being a huge Gary Kubiak guy, I’m kind of back and forth about this business of giving him a contract extension.
Extension’s effect on free agency and coaching hires is a bit overblown.
I suppose it does make sense that having your coach under contract for more than one season is more attractive for free agents - but I think this is way overblown. Money talks in NFL free agency - louder than anything. Much louder than continuity. Do you think if Albert Haynesworth would have known that the Redskins were going to switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 that he would say “thanks but no thanks” to his $40 million guaranteed? Not likely. Maybe it could have been a tiebreaker, but I’m guessing Tampa Bay didn’t have the same amount on the table. The same concept applies to mid-level free agents as well.
As far as coaches, having only one year left on Kubiak’s contract didn’t preclude the Texans from being able to hire Rick Dennison as their offensive coordinator. It didn’t stop them from getting a new QB coach. Sure, Kubiak might have told both guys that he was about to be extended, but I’m guessing these guys didn’t sign with a “if Kubiak doesn’t get extended, our contract is voided” clause.
Sure, the extension is factor in free agency and coaching hires, but I don’t think it’s nearly as big a deal as it’s made out to be.
Kubiak’s win/loss record in the AFC South.
Gary Kubiak’s coaching record against his own division 7-17. Personally, I look at division record as a good indicator of how good a coach is. You’re facing the same teams every year, and if you’re as good as the other coaches - you find a way to at least keep it CLOSE to .500 in that time. Let’s not forget that the Texans haven’t been awful during Kubiak’s tenure. They’ve only had one losing season in four years, and a boatload of mediocrity.
I know it has been a strong division during this stretch, but the coaches and systems have all been the same. Jim Caldwell is the new coach in Indy, but they’re not doing THAT much different than they were during the Tony Dungy era. If you’re a good coach, and you’re preparing against the same systems and same coaches every season - you do better than 7-17.
That really gives me pause when I think about Kubiak getting an extension, and Kubiak’s ability as a coach overall. I support the guy and always have his back, but… 7-17.
It’s not like an extension means McNair won’t drop the hammer.
Bob McNair is sick of losing. A lot of people will be surprised by this extension, but they shouldn’t be. If the Texans bottom-out next year, I don’t think McNair will hesitate. He’s got the money to buy Kubiak out or just pay him what he’s owed according to the extension. That said - if the Texans once again finish in the 7-9 to 9-7 range next year, Kubes will be back and a lot of us won’t be happy.
Next season, we will find out a lot about Kubiak and the team’s future as a whole. 2009 was a perfect storm… Matt Schaub stayed healthy, Andre Johnson was once again a monster, and the defense improved after a rough start. On top of that, they had a fairly easy schedule on paper, and suddenly figured out how to win on the road. But they couldn’t win the big games, they couldn’t beat the top teams, they couldn’t finish, and once again they were garbage in their own division.
When the Texans go into next season, there will be uneasiness and uncertainty about the running game, and they will have what looks to be one hell of a tough schedule on paper.
We’ll see what they’re made of. We’ll see what Gary Kubiak is made of.