We’ve seen the end of the first team offense and defense this preseason. We’ll continue to learn more about the team tomorrow night against the Bucs, but the focus will be on depth.

If you read a lot of the Texans online coverage, whether it be the blogs or anything else, many of us have the same questions about this team. Let’s take a look at where the team stands on these issues now, and in the days leading up to week one. The “scale of judgement” will go from -5 to 5 (yep, that’s math. Sort of.) -5 would mean the team is going backwards, 0 means no movement, 5 would mean a huge upgrade.

Offseason concern #1. Interior Offensive Line issues
Following an abysmal team rushing performance in 2009, the Texans problems (in this area) are twofold. We can argue back and forth about what percentage of blame falls on the running backs, and what percentage falls on the offensive line, but it’s clear that blame falls on both sides.

Texans’ solution
Texans brought in versatile veteran Wade Smith, who has just been named the starter at left guard. Barring a surprise, the rest of the offensive line remains the same (Brown, Myers, Caldwell, Winston), with another year of experience and coaching under their collective belt.

First team results to this point
One inconsistent showing, one putrid showing, one dominant showing. The Texans were inconsistent against the Cardinals on the ground, especially on the inside. At that time, Kasey Studdard was the starting LG, with Wade Smith coming in later. Arian Foster ripped off a couple of decent runs, but also had a lot of 2009-esque runs. It was sloppy at times, but you can also chalk that up to it being the first preseason game.

In game two, the Texans were awful in all phases of the game. The running game averaged 3.4 yards per carry, but worse than their performance was the fact that the Texans were SO dominated, that they only got 20 minutes of possession time.

Against the Cowboys, the lines on both sides dominated. Wade Smith had his best game, and was soon after named the starter. Kasey Studdard is bumped down to backup status.

Early verdict
It’s hard to say. I lean toward an “incomplete,” but that’s a cop-out. Because it’s preseason, you really never know what you have – but the combination of an upgrade at LG and some new wrinkles in the running game (did you also see them do a couple of counters?) give me the confidence to say that the team has definitely improved their interior O-line situation. How dramatically they’ve improved it remains to be seen, and of course we will never know exactly how much the new running back situation has to do with that. They go hand-in-hand, one makes the other look better when things are going well.

SCORE: 2
The running game has still been a little too inconsistent for me to jump up and say we’ve had a significant upgrade. Simply inserting Smith into the lineup over Studdard is an immediate upgrade. Gary Kubiak has stated that Smith has shown the most improvement of all the players fighting for the open offensive line positions. I have no reason to think that’s inaccurate, and you’d think since he’s only been with the team for a short while that he is only going to get better. Okay, sure. I buy that too.

The reason I don’t move above a score of two in this category, is that in the end – the Texans didn’t do any real work to upgrade the center position other than have other guys already on the team compete with Chris Myers. Myers isn’t a terrible center, but he’s had more than his share of issues. Certainly enough that he should have had to fight for his job as hard as Studdard had to, and against some new blood. Opening up competition for a spot for a week in preseason is not the same thing as bringing in competition, if you get my meaning.

Next up, we’ll talk about offseason concern #2, the running back situation.

I think they did. That said, it sure was fun to see the Texans beat the Cowboys up and down the field on Saturday night. Preseason or not, that’s a good feeling. Especially after the drubbing they took in New Orleans.

That said, I have some problems with what I saw on Saturday. Now, I’m already kind of seen as a cynical “over-worrier” when it comes to the Texans, but please hear me out.

After watching the game a second time, something that was crystal clear to me the FIRST time was only reinforced. The Texans did nearly EVERYTHING they could to win this game. They treated it (as they often do) as the preseason Super Bowl. The Cowboys? They were exactly who the Texans were in New Orleans. They had been away from home for a while (much longer than the Texans were), they had no desire to win the game, and it showed.

While in a perfect world, people could stand up, redfaced, and scream “I MAKE 20,000 A YEAR AND YOU MAKE TEN MILLION AND YOU NEED TO GIVE MAXIMUM EFFORT ALL THE TIME RAAWWRR!!!” — That’s not the world we live in. It’s preseason. Teams don’t care. For teams like the Cowboys and Colts, who have both looked pretty awful at times – that’s fine. They’re proven winners, and playoff teams. For the Texans? You better show me something.

So, they did. They came out on fire, especially defensively. But my thoughts on this game can be boiled down thusly: The Texans showed WAY too much, and wanted this meaningless game WAY more than the Cowboys.

Why the Texans did this, I have no idea. I can only assume they felt pressure to have a good showing in front of their angry fans after the New Orleans debacle. What’s the best way to ensure a dominant performance? Open up the playbook on both sides of the ball, and get after them. And they did.

The Texans were blitzing, stunting, and using defensive looks that the Dallas offense will be much more ready to handle when they return to Houston in week three. By then, they will have gameplanned for the Texans, and their beat up offensive line will be in better shape. Anyone who follows the Texans closely and pays attention to their defensive scheming was I’m sure in a near state of shock when Frank Bush dialed up a corner blitz with Glover Quin on the first series. There’s not a whole lot of tape on that sort of thing out there with the Texans, and of course – it worked beautifully. This time.

On offense, the Texans will beat you no matter how much tape the other side has, mainly because, well, they simply have a great offense. But there was one play in particular that I’m VERY upset they yanked out in the preseason. The 24-yard touchdown pass from Matt Schaub to Jacoby Jones was a thing of beauty. I’ve never seen a team bite on the play-fake as hard as the Cowboys bit. It was beautifully sold, perfectly executed, and SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN RUN IN THE PRESEASON!!!!!

Obviously, an enormous part of the Texans offense is based on misdirection and play action. But the route that Jacoby ran on the bootleg – where he went ACROSS the field after faking a typical bootleg route – that was something new and exciting, and any defensive coordinator worth TEN CENTS in the NFL is not going to fall for that more than once. It sure was a pretty play, though.

Even as cynical as I am, I have no wet blanket for what the running game did on Saturday night. They didn’t do anything fancy in that respect. They Cowboys knew it was coming, and they couldn’t do anything to stop it. Arian Foster is looking fantastic. I’ve been fine with him as the starter since Gary Kubiak started preparing us for it way back when – my ONLY concern with Foster is that he had injury issues at Tennessee. He only started two games last year, and we just don’t have a large sampling of him yet. Can he hold up to the wear and tear week to week? Man, I sure hope so because after already losing Ben Tate, this team is an injury to Foster away from having one of, if not the WORST running back situation in the NFL.

Jeremiah Johnson looked great, but he has issues with blitz pick-up. Steve Slaton still has shown me nothing at all to sway me away from thinking he’s the same guy he was last year. His field vision still looks non-existent, he hesitates, and that’s not even including the fumbling problem – which may have only been a one-time thing against Arizona, we just don’t know. The problem is, the fumbling is only one of many problems he has as a runner now. If he’s still considered the number two running back, it’s only because he’s a better blocker than Johnson – because Johnson certainly looks like a much better runner.

What happened, Steve? Seriously. It’s sad. The guy was unstoppable in 2008.

The Texans also appear to not have fixed their red zone scoring issues. I’ve seen in two separate places now references to how the Texans “would have had one more touchdown in the red zone if not for a holding call.” I don’t see it that way. The hold is what sprung the touchdown. It’s not like it happened away from the play. Chris Myers’ hold is what allowed Foster to score, and yes it was a legit holding call. Now – the pass interference call against Glover Quin – that was a load of horse crap… but I digress.

Look, the Texans looked great on Saturday. Other than their red zone woes, there was a lot to be excited about. I just don’t see the value in breaking open the playbook like that just to appease the fans who want to win yet another preseason Super Bowl championship.

So that’s my harsh, cynical look at what you would think I would look at as a triumphant return to form for the Texans on Saturday. I love that they won big. I love that they dominated – I guess I just am ready to take that step as a fan, where I don’t care about anything that happens in the preseason. I don’t want the players to think it’s a big deal, and I guess I don’t want the fans to think it’s a big deal either.

Maybe I shouldn’t have typed this on a Monday?

I’ll have a proper game reaction entry up soon, but I want to open it up to discussion following preseason game number three.

Quick thought: Tonight’s Cowboys team = last week’s Texans team. They just didn’t care. It certainly won’t be that way when they return in week three, and their defense SURE as heck won’t be as simplistic as it was tonight.

Much more to come, of course.

Owen Daniels has been 100% cleared
Great news about the would-be Pro Bowl TE. I’m still curious about what his “setback” was, but at this point it obviously doesn’t matter. Kubiak again mentioned the mysterious setback on today’s live post-practice presser over at HoustonTexans.com. Daniels will not play in the preseason, but will resume practice next week and is expected to start against the Colts in week 1.

Obviously, Daniels is in fine physical shape, but you have to wonder if missing all this practice time will hurt his prospects to excel early in the offense. I know he’s a veteran and he knows how things work, but there’s something to be said for being in a practice and game rhythm, and he won’t have that. I’m sure he’ll be fine… I just always have to have something to worry about when it comes to the Texans. Speaking of worrying…

The linebacker situation is getting desperate
This of course has already been covered elsewhere, but considering the Texans have two preseason games remaining, it’s more than a little bit alarming that the team is down to so few healthy linebackers. The team signed Will Patterson (who they brought in previously as an undrafted free agent) but I’m starting to wonder if they need to sign someone who’s not just a “camp body.” Who that would be, I have no idea, but there’s bound to be more injuries, and obviously we still have the Brian Cushing suspension looming large.

As far as I’ve seen, there’s still no timetable for when perpetually-injured LB Xavier Adibi will return to the field. That said, there is a timetable for how long he will stay healthy once he does get back – roughly two weeks. Daryl Sharpton has looked promising, but he’s got some knee swelling after getting chop blocked against the Saints. He says he’s ready to go, but who knows if the team agrees. It’s disturbing how the Texans went from having one of the deepest, most-talented linebacker corps in the league – to having a skeleton crew that’s yet to figure out who is even the leading candidate to replace Cushing for the first four games.

Bewildered by Kubiak’s linebacker comments
Gary Kubiak has stated it’s too late to bring a street free agent linebacker in and play them Saturday – but my question is… why? Kubiak is talking about having all the starters out there for three quarters on Saturday… but my question, again, is WHY? Who cares what the rest of the NFL does with preseason game number three? Let them play a quarter or a little more, then for God’s sake – sit them down. I’m sure Isaiah Greenhouse and Will Patterson can use the work. So what if they get killed on the scoreboard?

You can’t coach scared, but you also have to coach smart. The position group has serious issues right now, and arguably there’s not much the starters can gain from playing more than a couple of quarters.

[UPDATE] I have a taker for the last spot – but I need this to go fast so if the first responder (Chris S.) doesn’t accept my invite by the end of the day (the invite has been sent), I’ll go to the next person who replied – Mr. X, and so on.

First one to respond in the comments section, you’re in.

Two guys who wanted in (JimboTexan and Boomer Collins) never accepted their invites. I filled one of those spaces already, but one is left. Just remember – only opt in if you are sure you can manage your team every week. I don’t want anyone who’s going to just give up and stop managing halfway into the season, or when things go south.

We can also use the comments below to begin discussing a draft date. Right now, the draft is set for Tuesday, September 7 at 7PM.

I’m open to changing it, but it’s going to be majority rule. So far I’ve gotten three or four votes of “that’s fine with me” and one of “I don’t like it.” Let’s hold off on discussing rule changes at this point. Once the league is full and we have a date, I’ll start a whole new entry for us to discuss scoring changes.

Wow, was that ever ugly. Of course, just as we can’t overreact to success against the Cardinals, we can’t start jumping off of buildings after getting beaten to death by the Saints. Uh… right?

The defense was completely and throughly dominated
The pass rush was completely non-existent, and the run defense was beyond embarrassing. Nothing – NOTHING – in the NFL illustrates how bad your run defense is more than giving up huge chunks of yardage inside the tackles to Reggie Bush. Bush looked like Larry Csonka and John Riggins on the inside. Of course, to be confused with physical runners such as those, I guess he would have had to make contact with defenders. Sadly, the guy was barely touched… while running inside – which is only half as shocking as it is alarming. Kim Kardashian in pads could have done just as much damage to the Texans defense as her ex-boyfriend did last night.

The defensive line looked tired, confused, and I hate to say it – lazy. It seemed they were guessing wrong all night. They overpursued more than I think I’ve ever seen them overpursue. They missed tackles on almost every play, and it seemed like even when they did get the initial tackle, that they still got dragged an extra 2-4 yards. It was just an overall tail-kicking in performance, demeanor, preparation, and execution. The Saints looked every bit like the Super Bowl champion they are, and the Texans looked like they had a nice little vacation in New Orleans.

As if all of that wasn’t enough of an embarrassment…
The Texans kept their first-team defense on the field – and got shredded even WORSE by a combination of Saints first and second-teamers, led by what we were told was Chase Daniel, but MUST have actually been Drew Brees wearing his backup’s uniform. Remember the JaMarcus Montana fiasco? It was that… but thankfully, it didn’t count.

Steve Slaton… ugh
Yes, he had one very exciting, explosive kickoff return, but as a running back he looked every bit as bad as he did last year, as did the offensive linemen in front of him. When the bright side is “at least he didn’t fumble,” you know things just aren’t right. Slaton had 19 yards rushing on five carries… his longest run? 16 yards. He had one good carry, a bunch of bad ones, and wow was it ever a mess in front of him. Still, he looked a bit hesitant and indecisive, but what is he supposed to do when there are blue jerseys tumbling backward towards him?

Arian Foster took his turn at fumbling
Foster looked decent out there, but I’m not seeing the types of things out of him OR the line in front of him that look like we are in for any sort of significant improvement in the running game. Sure, it will be better, but it still looks like a struggle on almost every carry. Foster had a bad fumble last night, but at least it wasn’t the same kind of inexplicable fumble that Slaton has sadly made a part of his regular répertoire. Foster was just trying to make a play, and raised his football-carrying arm up to try and get around a defender. Bad idea, worse result – but that’s not something I’m concerned about him doing regularly. Foster is still the clear number one running back, but that’s more about how the rest of the position is not-so-good than it is about how good he is. Even with his preseason/camp struggles, I still think Ben Tate would have eventually overtaken Foster as the starter sometime in the second half of the season. He just has more natural talent. Anyway. Spilled milk.

Scary moment when Andre Johnson goes down
I have no idea why Andre was even still in the game at that point, but when Tracy Porter went low and took his knees out, I’m sure we all had the same reaction. You were also gasping, clutching at your chest, kicking your pets, and reaching for the lighter fluid, right? Andre continued playing, but the sight of him getting up slowly is about as much excitement as I want in the preseason. No more, please.

There’s, so, SO much more to complain about after that debacle, but it is, after all, just a preseason game. I expected the Texans to struggle against New Orleans, but I had no idea we were in for such a complete beating. I know they are the Super Bowl champs and all, but the gap between the two teams was enormous. I’m sure coach Kubiak isn’t going to be the most loved guy by his players this week in practice, and yeah – they deserve it. Unfortunately it looks like it wasn’t just a matter of getting outplayed, but more that the team was SEVERELY outcoached, especially when it came to the Saints offense versus the Texans defense. Frank Bush did not have his guys ready to do anything, and it showed.

Worse, the Texans were so completely dominated in the time of possession game (40:00 to 20:00) that they didn’t even get good looks at the guys playing on offense. That’s just adding insult to injury right there. We know preseason doesn’t matter for wins and losses, but what IS important about preseason is talent evaluation. The Texans were so bad, they barely got a chance to accomplish even that.

First, check out ESPN’s AFC South Blogger Paul Kuharsky’s Camp Confidential report on the Texans. Kuharsky continues to be FAR and away the best national writer when it comes to knowledge of the Texans. He’s up on way more than just the broad strokes.

After multiple viewings of the Texans’ first preseason game against the Cardinals, two things are clear – 1) Houston’s starters looked composed, ready to play, and dominant. 2) Arizona’s starters were composed and ready to be dominated.

Tonight, the Texans take on the Super Bowl champion Saints, who are better in all facets of the game than the Cardinals. Their defense is more aggressive (and proved their playmaking abilities all last year) and obviously their offense is one of the best if not the best in the NFL. I don’t expect to see the Texans dominate they way they did last week, but it would be very encouraging to see them stop the New Orleans defense at least a couple of times while all the starters are on the field.

Gary Kubiak continues offensive line tinkering
The Texans tried to address the obvious interior offensive line issues in the offseason, but it boiled down to one move (signing veteran Wade Smith) and having open competition between the rest (originally having Smith, Mike Brisiel, Chris Myers, Antoine Caldwell, and Kasey Studdard fight it out for three positions).

Kubiak has since stated that Myers is now locked in at center (so there’s no upgrade there). He’s also insisted that competition remains open for the remaining two guard spots, but Kubiak’s division of the playing time indicates that Caldwell is all but a lock to keep the right guard position. So, again – no upgrade at right guard, but Caldwell is a young, improving player and it’s no stretch to think that he could develop into a very solid player. It might be a stretch, but because of his youth and pedigree, there’s a good chance the Caldwell of 2010 will be an upgrade over the 2009 version.

Tonight, the Texans will have Wade Smith starting at left guard ahead of incumbent starter Kasey Studdard. Who knows if it was always the plan to get a look at Smith as a starter in the preseason, but Studdard certainly didn’t help his case last week against the Cardinals. The guy is just flat out not a very good run-blocker. You could see it on the field, but if you’re not apt to look at such specific things during a game, check out Rivers’ assessment of Studdard (and the rest of the team) in his ongoing tape study series. This is just one “incident” with Studdard, but for him, bad run-blocking has been a pattern.

Will the run game continue to build momentum?
Offensively, I’m still not sure what to expect from the Texans’ running game. The numbers looked great last week, but the bulk of Arian Foster’s yards came on one carry. Of course, that’s not to discount the one long run he made. It’s got to be getting close to put up or shut up time for Steve Slaton. The Texans can NOT afford to continue to give him “all the time he needs” to fix this horrendous fumbling problem. By the way, if you missed it – check out the newest Texans fanblog, Texans Bull Blog for an interesting look at Slaton from the Cardinals game.

I noticed during the broadcast that Slaton was clenching and unclenching his hand, and briefly wondered if he had re-injured his neck, but since he continued in the game and had some decent runs, I thought nothing of it. It’s obviously not an “open and shut” case they present, but it definitely makes you think about it – which is all they were trying to do I think. The guys at Bull Blog are killing it, by the way.

After Slaton, another guy who needs to put it together fast is Chris Henry. All he did last week was reinforce what everyone has ever said about him – that he looks like an All-Pro in practice but can never put that talent on display during a game. Jeremiah Johnson severely outplayed Henry last week, and if Slaton’s issues continue, Johnson might be on the fast-track to the number two spot on the running back depth chart.

How will Kareem Jackson compete against a top passing attack?
Jackson has been up and down in training camp, but for a guy who was a big-time player at a big-time program, I’d like to see him in live action before letting his camp struggles worry me. Obviously, he was getting beaten up and down the field by Andre Johnson everyday in practice – but he struggled against other receivers too. In my time out at practice, he didn’t always have the best body language, but I don’t want to overreact to that. Recent reports have suggested that he’s improved in practice, and is starting to look more like the starter the Texans are hoping he becomes. Still – you have to expect that he will struggle tonight against the Saints potent attack.

Speaking of the secondary, I noticed last week that even down a player (Jackson missed the game due to a death in the family) the Texans had Antwaun Molden as the nickel corner (ahead of Jacques Reeves on the depth chart). Molden will be another one to monitor tonight. I want to see if he’s once again on the field ahead of Reeves, and of course I want to see how he holds his own against that offense.

We still have a few weeks until these games officially count, but it’s been a blast reading up on the Texans Blogosphere’s analysis, predictions, roster discussions, etc. Next week, we have our annual “date” with the Cowboys. It’s fun to beat on that group no matter what the stakes are. Check back after the game for analysis and reaction.

[EDITOR'S NOTE] Kyle is back to drop his 2010 season preview on the universe. If you thought Kyle’s crack habit was bad leading up to the draft – wait until you read THIS. This guy is tweaking HARD. I’m kind of afraid for his life. Kyle – you have family that love you. It’s okay to admit you need help. Take it away:

The World’s best 2010 NFL Season Projector IN THE WORLD!!!

Every year, football experts put together predictions for the upcoming season, and, as any fan of TMQ knows, they always get them totally wrong. Why?

1. They pick the same teams every year, ignoring the parity that makes the NFL great.
2. They ignore football curses, even those that have been proven nearly 100% true.
3. They fail to use fantasy football as a research tactic.

By taking a superstitious approach to my projections, I provide a much different projection than what you will find elsewhere on the internet. Does that make mine right? I guess we’ll see.

AFC East
Buffalo’s out because they are just a terrible team. They are one of four teams that I predict will compete for the #1 overall pick in 2011.

As for the rest? They are all in the mix for the title, even though most people have discarded Miami as a threat. Not so fast. New York is about to get hit with THE HARD KNOCKS CURSE! The first two teams to appear on the HBO show failed to make the playoffs, and the third team, Cincinnati, has their own way of suffering through curses. Now, all the HKC does is escalate problems that go from little things to paralyzing afflictions. The two hot topics on the show are Mark Sanchez feeling the pressure, and Rex Ryan turning the Revis Island holdout into a gigantic media circus. When your best player and starting QB have issues, your team is in trouble.

New England is in the hunt, but they are getting old and, frankly, have been coasting off their Super Bowl wins and 18-1 season ever since the Matt Cassell phenomenon. This leaves Miami. Walterfootball.com did a piece on the effect of new receivers for their QB’s. In short, new receivers lead to a breakout season for the QB, and, if Henne has a borderline-Pro Bowl year, and Karlos Dansby plays up to his new contract, this is the team that will take the East.
WINNER – Miami

AFC North
Baltimore is the frontrunner in my book for Home Field, and will probably have the luxury of resting their starters, which is good, since the frailty of a large chunk of their core (Ray Lewis, Anquan Boldin, Ed Reed, Lardarius Webb, Derrick Mason, and Todd Heap are all important players who are either old or injury-prone).

Why will they lock up the North so fast? Because Cleveland is transitioning from a terrible season, Cincinnati is about to implode upon itself due to the large number of radioactive personalities on the team, and the Steelers had their season ruined by Big Ben and Santonio before it even began.
WINNER – Baltimore

AFC South
WINNER – Houston

Now that I have your attention, here’s why. Though our running game will still not break into the Top 20 in the NFL, it is passable, and there is no better QB-WR tandem in the NFL than Schaub and AJ. (For those who said Peyton and Reggie Wayne, head back to the end of the line). The defense is chock full of young leaders, at least one of which should step up and have a monster game each week.

The real reason Houston has not made the playoffs? Divisional strength. Didn’t they just go 9-7 with a 1-5 divisional record? Imagine if they went 4-2 in division?

Jacksonville is team #2 in my predicted fight for the #1 pick. (2-0) Tennessee will suffer from the Fantasy Football Phenomenon of “The RB with Too Many Carries Last Year”. Stats prove that after as many carries as CJ had last season, he’s due for a drop-off. If this team went 8-8 with a 2000-yard rusher, how do you think they’ll do when he only rushes for 1200? (3-1)

As for Indy…SUPER LOSER CURSE!!! Since 2000, The team that lost the Super Bowl almost always fails to accumulate a winning record and make the postseason the next year. Considering that, of the 3 exceptions, 2 only made it because they played in the NFC West, I’d say this is as good a reason as any to sell high on the Colts (4-2).

There you have it. The Texans can easily go 6-4 or 7-3 outside of the South, and are likely to go 4-2 in division. That smells like a winner to me. Now, since it bears repeating…
WINNER – Houston

AFC West
This is where it gets interesting. First of all, KC is team #3. Second of all, Denver WILL NOT succeed after losing Mike Nolan and Elvis Dumervil, their defensive mastermind and pass rush stud, respectively. So San Diego has a cakewalk right?

WRONG! Oakland will win this division. The only thing that has held back this perennially underrated team is the mad-hattery of Al Davis. If the draft is any indication, Al Davis is no longer in control of this franchise. Rolando McClain now looks like a beautiful decision since they secretly transitioned to the 3-4, and this team has replaced three daggers in their heart (Russel, McFadden, Heyward-Bey) in the starting lineup with three talented players (Campbell, Bush, Louis Murphy), they kept their two best defensive players (Seymour and Asomugha), and let’s not forget that they have arguably the best special teams in the NFL. San Diego always starts slow and tries to finish strong, banking on a Denver choke job, but Oakland won’t choke.
WINNER – Oakland

Playoff standings: #1 BAL, #2 MIA, #3 HOU, #4 OAK

Wildcard #5 – Cleveland
WHAT?!? Didn’t I just say the team was in transition? Well, that’s why they won’t come close to the 12-4ish Ravens. However, Jake Delhomme has looked sharp early in the preseason, the team has a GREAT offensive line and solid weapons, and their defense could be a lot worse.

Keep this in mind: The #1 rule that experts forget is the NFL Turnover Rate. Each year, about 6 teams make the playoffs that sat out the year before. IF you want any chance of predicting the future, you NEED to be willing to accept that a couple of teams will come OUT OF NOWHERE and make the playoffs.

Wildcard #6 – New England
With the Jets and Colts cursed, it was either the Patriots or the Chargers, and the Patriots have more talent.

Playoffs – New England @ Houston
Houston will be fired up for their first home playoff game ever, and the PAtriots will cash it in like they’ve been doing.
WINNER – Houston

Cleveland @ Oakland
The Black Hole is a tough place to play, but Cleveland has something Oakland doesn’t have: a playoff-experienced QB and UNBRIDLED RAGE!!! The town of Cleveland has been dumped on especially since LeBron left. This season, the Browns will turn this into Cleveland vs. the World and, like Michael Cera in Youth in Revolt, they will find an awkward way to turn rebellion into victory.
WINNER – Cleveland

Cleveland @ Baltimore
Three things:
1. Divisional match-ups in the playoffs are prone to upset because the visiting team isn’t intimidated by the home crowd and they REALLY know their opponent.
2. Teams that rest starters and have bye weeks have statistically struggled in their first playoff game.
3. Remember how I made a long list of important Ravens who are likely to be injured? You don’t think they’ll ALL be here in this game, do you?
WINNER – Cleveland

Houston @ Miami
To my knowledge, every time these teams play, Houston wins by single digits. As you can tell, I don’t argue with past history in football.
WINNER – Houston

Cleveland @ Houston
The nation will want Cleveland to win as a huge underdog story, but in this case, Houston is the better team by too much of a distance to overcome with passion and rage.
WINNER AND AFC REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SUPER BOWL – Houston

NFC East
With the Big Game headed to Cowboy Town, Dallas has all the pressure to succeed. Fortunately, they are one of the most talent-rich teams in the league, and, though this is the toughest division in the NFL, Dallas should be able to get to the playoffs on top. Getting there has never really been the problem.
WINNER – Dallas

NFC North
Chicago will stink, and Detroit will be significantly better, but this race is between Green Bay and the Minnesota Favres. Don’t buy the hype. This hurts to say, because I missed my fantasy draft and got stuck with Sidney Rice as my #1 WR, but Minnesota will not be special this year. They’ll be in play for the wildcard, but this is Green Bay’s year, at least in conference.
WINNER – Green Bay

NFC South
WINNER – Tampa Bay
No, I’m serious. Go Wikipedia the NFC South, and tell me I’m wrong. GO on. I’ll wait.

…

SEE?!? Every year since the realignment, the last place team from the year before made the playoffs, and, in all but one case, won the division outright.

As for New Orleans…MADDEN CURSE!!! Drew Brees will get hurt, and Mark Brunell will throw their season away.

NFC West
Arizona will stink this year. TRUST ME. This is good news for Houston fans who are tired of hearing that Larry Fitzgerald may be better than Andre Johnson, which is about as accurate as a blind archer.

St. Louis is team #4 competing for the top pick, and this is the 49ers year to crawl over the trash pile and take a 9-7 season to the playoffs.
“WINNER” – San Francisco

Playoff Standings – #1 Green Bay, #2 Dallas, #3 Tampa Bay, #4 San Francisco

Wildcard #5 – Atlanta

The Falcons have quietly amassed a VERY complete team that is MUCH better than the Wildcard spot that the Football Gods bestowed upon it.

Wildcard #6 – Washington

Philadelphia used to send a bunch of 8-8ish teams to the playoffs because Donovan McNabb gutted out a win or two on his own. Now, he is doing it AGAINST Philly.

PLAYOFFS – Washington @ Tampa Bay
Okay, okay. The NFC SOUTH “CURSE” only gets them to the playoffs. It won’t help them here.
WINNER – Washington

Atlanta @ San Francisco
I don’t think Alex Smith is going to be able to help the 49ers get far in the playoffs. David Carr on the other hand…
WINNER – Atlanta

Washington @ Green Bay
This game will be a close one, but I don’t trust the Redskins’s pack of aging running backs against Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji, and I don’t trust their decent secondary against Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley.
WINNER – Green Bay

Atlanta @ Dallas
This is where Dallas’s completeness comes into play. The Falcons’ interior line will have no answer for Jay Ratliff, and the only hole on the Cowboys’s roster, left tackle Doug Free, will not face enough of a pass rush threat to stop Tony Romo from torching Dunta Robinson.

That said, don’t count out Matty Ice, and past history tells me that, even though the thought of a Super Bowl of Houston @ Dallas is too awesome for words, you DO NOT bet on the Cowboys to make it far in the playoffs while Wade PHillips and Tony Romo are playing.
WINNER – Atlanta

Atlanta @ Green Bay
This comes down to Greg Jennings vs. Dunta and Roddy White vs. Charles Woodson.
WINNER AND NFC REPRESENTATIVE TO THE SUPER BOWL – Green Bay

SUPER BOWL – Houston vs. Green Bay
This may feel like a home game just a few hours from H-town, but the Pack would bring their army of fans, so it wouldn’t be a noticeable majority.

As far as the game, the Houston offensive line struggles against the 3-4, and Charles Woodson should be able to keep AJ under 100 yards. I don’t think our defense will let us get blown out, but this one is not a game I think we can win. Sorry guys.

Green Bay 20, Houston 13 (Not as close as the scoreboard indicates)

So there you have it. After factoring in:

-Playoff Turnover Rate
-Madden Curse
-Super Loser Curse
-NFC South Turnaround
-Hard Knocks Curse
-Fantasy Football Rule of Too Many RB Carries
-Fantasy Football Rule of New Receivers
-Past History
-and, when all else failed, simple logic

This is what you get. You get a season where Houston turns their first ever playoff appearance into a Super Bowl run (after defeating CLEVELAND), and the Dallas Cowboys choking away the first-ever hometown Super Bowl.

MVP: Aaron Rodgers – Stats will be through the roof plus Home Field = MVP
OPoY: Andre Johnson – Will completely outshine all other “peers”
DPoY: Karlos Dansby – Huge stats and a huge part of Miami’s Divisional Conquest
ORoY: C.J. Spiller – With no pass game and two other backs hurt, Spiller will probably amass a TON of meaningless yardage.
DRoY: Rolando McClain – Entering a perfect situation, and will take advantage
Coach of the Year: Tom Cable – The Browns’ turnaround may be more exciting, but that was the GM not the coach. Plus, Oakland won their division.

Thanks for making it through the projections.

Tough break for Ben Tate
Gary Kubiak has now confirmed that rookie RB Ben Tate will miss the entire 2010 season with an ankle injury. It’s still not clear exactly what injury occurred, but it doesn’t matter. He’s done for the year. It’s a big blow to the player, and potentially a big blow to the team. I know Arian Foster has the starting RB spot locked up, but he’s had his own injury problems in the past, and, let’s face it – Tate is the most naturally-talented runner on the team, even if he hadn’t yet put it all together on the field. I do think that he would have had some kind of impact on the Texans in 2010, it probably just wasn’t going to happen until much later in the year.

After the first preseason game, the pecking order at running back is clear. Foster remains deeply entrenched as the starter, with Steve Slaton holding what I would hope is a tenuous grasp on the second spot. Jeremiah Johnson decisively separated himself from Chris Henry on Saturday night, so those two come in at three and four. The team will likely sign another back soon. Whether or not they go for a veteran like Ladell Betts or a younger guy remains to be seen.

Bulman also done for the year
Tim Bulman had been out for a short while with a significant shoulder injury, but I never saw any indication that it was severe enough to threaten his season. Clearly, it’s bad. Bulman was placed on injured reserve today as well, and the Texans signed free agent defensive end James Wyche, a seventh-round draft pick of the Jaguars in 2006. Wyche (6-5, 279) is 28 years old.

Schobel hangs it up… or so it seems
The Aaron Schobel-to-Houston saga appears to be over. John McClain reports that Schobel has decided to retire, and he doesn’t seem sure that he could fully commit to football anymore. We’ll see if Schobel bothers to file his retirement paperwork. I still think he’d be a good addition to the team at the right price, but if he’s being honest about how he’s not sure he wants to play, or not sure he can fully commit to football – that’s not the kind of guy you want on your team anyway, regardless of his skill.

Of course, there’s still the (slight) chance that Schobel is just biding his time, not wanting to go through training camp, but he sure does sound serious.

The Texans looked like they were ready to GO Saturday night in Arizona. Their play certainly backed it up. The Texans’ starters dominated the Cardinals for the short time they were on the field, and you have to be happy with a lot of what you saw.

The Texans hit the field on offense, and quickly raised the eyebrows of many of us who have been dying to see that running game get going again. Arian Foster busted a 21-yard run on his first carry, and an entire fan base remembered what it was like to have a legitimate running threat.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson clearly haven’t missed a beat, and connected on a 44-yard touchdown strike. It wasn’t even close. Johnson made a move on Justin Miller and it was over before it started.

The defense came out snarling, and looked scary-good. To say Mario Williams overwhelmed his defenders would be an understatement. He notched two sacks in two series and the starters got good pressure on the Cardinals, even just using the four defensive linemen. Williams caused some concern with his recent hip problems, but unless embarrassing your opponent causes further inflammation, it looks like Williams will be just fine. No word yet from Gary Kubiak if his hip flared up after some game contact.

The Cardinals aren’t going to be who they were the last couple of years. Matt Leinart is still unproven, still shaky, and Arizona lost key players to free agency on defense. They’re probably a 6-8 win team in 2010, so as preseason success goes, this is even less of an indicator. Of course, the Texans will go starter vs. starter with the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints next week, so we might get a better idea of where the first-teamers are against tougher competition.

The Texans’ red zone woes continued in the first game, and there are still legitimate concerns about the interior offensive line. The Texans still seem content to spread the offense out near the goal line, a clear indication that even they don’t feel like they match up inside. When they did run it up the gut, Steve Slaton fumbled yet again. That of course goes to show that Slaton still isn’t where he, we, or the team want him to be – but in a regular season situation, Slaton is not going to be the goal line back.

Houston continued with a few roster experiments, and the results were mixed. Speed-burner and kick return specialist Trindon Holliday had an awful game. His one decent kick return for 30 yards was grossly overshadowed by repeated mistakes fielding the ball, and awful decisions when the return was set up ahead of him.

Seventh-round choice Dorin Dickerson continued to impress, pulling in three catches for 38 yards. Rookie linebacker Darryl Sharpton might have been the most impressive draft pick of the night. He was all over the field, and finished with seven tackles and an interception. Earl Mitchell didn’t exactly wreak havoc on the field, but you could see him getting some good pressure, and at one point he unleashed a hellacious spin-move, blowing right by his defender, but wasn’t able to hold on to the quarterback and finish the sack. Still, you can definitely see the potential there. Kubiak said of Mitchell “Earl Mitchell inside, very good. A lot of good things going on.”

Another young player who stood out was second-year safety Troy Nolan. Nolan had two tackles, an interception, and dropped another interception. The Texans are very thin at safety, and Nolan looked like a guy who can make an impact this year. If nothing else, at this early stage in the preseason he seems to have a nose for the ball.

With second-round pick Ben Tate down and possibly out for the year with a severe ankle injury, the Texans need one of either Chris Henry or Jeremiah Johnson to step up. Henry continued to reinforce the “book” on his own career, looking lost at running back despite his success in practice. Johnson, however, looked like the sleeper a lot of us thought he might be. He was lightning quick to the hole, and looked like a guy who can help this team right now. If he can get the pass protection side of being a running back figured out, he’s going to be tough to keep off the field.

Arian Foster looked great as the starter, but let’s not forget that he got 21 of his 31 rushing yards on one carry. Foster, who had injury issues in college, looked like he was walking gingerly after a couple of plays Saturday night, and Steve Slaton continues to be a fat question mark after his goal line fumble. It’s not totally out of the question that Johnson’s role could very quickly expand for this team in 2010.

It’s hard to believe that the Texans won’t have a much shorter leash on Slaton and his fumbling issues in 2010. Last season, Slaton was given ample opportunity to correct the problem (injury or not) and now that he’s allegedly healthy, the Texans should have his role figured out by the end of preseason. If he continues to have fumbling problems, and his field vision remains questionable, they just need to be done with it and bump him down the depth chart. There’s no reason to drag it out, especially if Johnson continues to impress.

Neil Rackers had a chance at a game-tying field goal at the end of the game, but Kubiak opted to take one more shot at the end zone, rather than give his kicker a chance to jump ahead in one of the team’s most hotly-contested position battles. Kubiak did botch the situation, but had this been a regular season game – the coach obviously would have opted to kick the field goal. It is a bit of a head-scratcher that Kubiak had a chance to see Rackers kick in a “pressure” situation, but opted not to try. Sure, they wanted to avoid overtime. Sure, they wanted to see if they could get a score… but isn’t it more important at this point to see if Rackers is a real threat to win the kicking job? So what if John David Booty would have thrown a miracle TD pass to end the game. Would that help the team as much as figuring out this kicker problem?

The Texans will now hit New Orleans for a week of practice against the Saints, then preseason game number two on Saturday night. The defense will go from defending against Matt Leinert to defending against Drew Brees. The offense will have a much more aggressive, playmaking defense to deal with. It should be an interesting week of practice. I wonder if we’ll have DeMeco Ryans vs. Jeremy Shockey II?